Bush unpopularity starting to bite

Let the flailing begin!

With approval for President Bush down to the low- to mid-40s and private accounts doing even worse, the Bush White House and Congressional Republicans are finally starting to try to scramble to pick up the pieces.

One idea being raised by Senate Republicans is to pay for private accounts with surplus Social Security revenues -- a brilliant way to drive home the enormous transition costs that privatization requires. As the Washington Post points out, "The strategy is controversial because it would create new budget problems. Either the diverted money would have to be replaced with new taxes, or Congress would have to slash programs now funded by Social Security's excess payroll taxes." Why anyone thinks this will work is beyond me.

Other, more realistic Senate Republicans have reportedly told the White House that "they are stuck in a deep rut and suggested it is time for an exit strategy" on Social Security. The problem, as the Post noted, is that Republicans are now stuck in a Catch-22:

Democrats are united in their opposition, and the [Senate] Finance Committee does not have the Republican votes to approve a Social Security plan that would divert some payroll taxes to private investment accounts. But the committee, which has jurisdiction over the issue, also does not have the votes to pass a plan that would preserve Social Security's solvency without the personal accounts because too many GOP conservatives want them.

And on top of all this, the White House has delayed the release of the recommendations of President Bush's tax reform panel until the end of September, hoping that it will have passed a Social Security package by then. But if not, it's unlikely that Bush will pass a tax reform package while he is President.

In short, the wheels are coming off the wagon. Absent another terrorist attack, we may be looking at Jimmy Carter part II.

Comments

[t]

Mr. Nyhan,

You first say that Bush's approval ratings are in the low 40s and then say "private accounts [are] doing even worse." But the link you provided showed the first poll question that you were showing to back up this claim, which is "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling Social Security?" This has nothing to do with private accouts but rather with "the way Bush is handling Social Security." An obvious reason why this number is at 34 is because many supporters of his plan don't like how slow the process has gone.

The next question is "Would you support or oppose a plan in which people who chose to could invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market?" Thus, support for private accounts is obviously doing better than Bush's approval rating. Even this poll showed that optional private accounts have been above 50% for the foreseeable past until just recently.