Why did President Bush’s presidency seem to implode over the last six weeks or so?

I think one factor hasn’t been given adequate attention: 9/11. By pushing his approval ratings up so high, it muted Democratic opposition to Bush until late 2003, bottled up virtually all conservative dissent through 2004, and warded off any serious first-term scandals.

But now that the approval boost has finally worn off (just after the election, as UNC’s Jim Stimson showed), all the fundamentals that had been suppressed are kicking in hard. Bush is an unpopular president who has presided over a weak job market. His major second term initiative (private accounts in Social Security) never came close to passage. Hurricane Katrina recast his 9/11-influenced aura of “leadership.” Harriet Miers shined the spotlight on his administration’s penchant for cronyism. The long-deferred Valerie Plame/Wilson scandal is now reaching deep into his administration. And conservatives finally stopped marching in lockstep behind Bush and started acting like a typically noisy, demanding political base.

In short, the equilibriating forces of American forces are reasserting themselves. Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson’s new book Off Center may be, in this sense, too late. However, the damage Bush has done to American democracy will be long-lasting. As we showed in All the President’s Spin, a series of norms against misleading presidential propaganda have been shattered. And norms, once destroyed, are difficult to rebuild. Unfortunately, one of 9/11’s legacies may be a dishonest, PR-driven presidential style of governance.