Today, Mickey Kaus asks, "Is antiwar sentiment in the Democratic primaries going to be so great that maybe Hillary would be well-advised to run for president as an independent?"
Answer: No. It's almost impossible for independents to win the presidency.
Not long ago, I tried to explain this to Kaus when he hyped a McCain independent candidacy. The forces of party loyalty, strategic voting, and the role the House of Representatives in resolving an Electoral College deadlock mean that major party nominees will win the presidency in almost every conceivable circumstance. And that's why McCain is running around praising Trent Lott and endorsing George Wallace, Jr., rather than positioning himself to run as an independent. No matter how difficult the party primaries may be, they're the only viable route to the presidency.
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