The director of the Pew Research Center discusses the vain hope for a third party or a "strong, independent political figure" with the Christian Science Monitor:
If there is a genuine desire to bring the country together over policy issues, says Mr. Kohut, the more productive avenue would come via the rise of a third party or strong, independent political figure. But "that only happens in presidential [election] times," he says. "We're a good deal ahead of that discussion."
When do those things happen in presidential election times? In recent years, Kohut could point to Ross Perot's 1992 and 1996 campaigns, but Perot never came close to winning the presidency and his Reform Party fizzled. In 1980, John Anderson pulled in 5 million votes an an independent presidential candidate, but he was never a serious threat to win.
More generally, every major party candidate since the rise of the primary system has had to win over his fellow partisans, which means taking stances that do not unite the country on policy. The mythology of the "strong, independent political figure" is a holdover from the days when generals like Eisenhower and Grant were put up as supposedly non-political candidates for the presidency, and third parties are, in general, a mythology (the last one to displace a major party was the Republicans in the mid-nineteenth century).
I'm glad this subject so fascinates reporters and pundits, but it's a waste of everyone's time. The winner of the 2008 election will be a major party nominee. The end.
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