John McCain's straw poll follies

As predicted, John McCain is starting to realize that his party's activist base doesn't like him:

Facing a loss at a 2008 straw poll event this weekend, Senator John McCain of Arizona told his supporters to write in President Bush [?] as a sign of support, leaving many sputtering.

"For the next three years, with our country at war, he's our president and the only one who needs our support," McCain told nearly 2,000 party activists from 26 states gathered in Memphis.

McCain, realizing the national political media had descended on the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, moved to discredit the straw poll by asking delegates to vote for Bush, insiders claim.

Instead of stopping the momentum of Majority Leader Bill Frist - widely anticipated to win the straw poll - the move seemed to expose the McCain camp's insincerity about its position with the base.

One activist said, "McCain voted against all the Bush tax cuts... maybe he should have voted for the president then, instead of waiting for a political stunt to try and distract."

To win a presidential nomination in the modern (primary) era, you need elite activist support. That's why McCain is sucking up to the base so desperately. But despite his popularity with the pundit class, it doesn't seem like the new schtick is working.

My question: when will the futures market adjust? Here's a chart of the price of the Tradesports contract that pays $10 if McCain wins the GOP nomination, which has been tracking upward since September: