Weirdly enough, the release of The New Republic's profile on George Allen had little effect on the prices of futures shares that pay off if he wins the 2008 GOP presidential nomination (though trading volume increased substantially):
So why did his share prices not move very much? Here are some possibilities:
1. Allen's share prices already reflect the damage he will suffer as a result of his history on race - the article didn't change anything fundamental;
2. Investors don't believe Allen's racial problems will prevent him from winning the GOP nomination;
3. The political futures markets lack sufficient depth to respond systematically to new information on a day-by-day basis.
Any ideas? I'm leaning toward #3 given that (a) I think the article will hurt Allen with non-Southern Republican elites who want to modernize the party and (b) the profile included a lot of new information about Allen's high school past that was previously known only to a handful of people.
(PS I'm also shocked by the lack of attention to the article by major bloggers other than Ezra Klein and Kevin Drum. So why are so many liberals and/or conservatives failing to respond? Allen is the great conservative hope of '08. Sure, it's early, but this is the kind of stuff that can kill a candidacy.)