John Kerry 2008: Game over

University of Wisconsin political scientist Charles Franklin has an excellent new post up analyzing new favorability data on the 2008 presidential contenders. The coolest graph illustrates just how unpopular John Kerry is. Kerry's rating of 22% favorable/48% unfavorable is far worse than anyone else in the poll. To give you a sense of how unpopular Kerry is, Tom DeLay's favorability rating back in April (months after his indictment) was 23% favorable/49% unfavorable. It's more than a little ironic that Kerry, who says President Bush "lives in a state of denial," thinks he can win the presidency with numbers like that.

Comments

[Getreal]

Polls don't mean a thing this early on. In fact they didn't mean a thing right before the primaries.

This is a democracy last time I looked, anyone can run, and in fact Edwards, Biden, Clark, Gore, have all ran before. Edwards was on the ticket with Kerry, so in that case he lost twice.

Dream on.

[GV]

I'd love to see Senator Kerry run. He's been out in front on every issue and he hasn't been afraid to stand up to the Bush administration's horrific policies.
Polls are meaningless. Kerry's been trashed by the right wing media and he still continues to speak out for what he knows is right.
That's what leaders do.
Run, John, Run.

[Seth]

While it is an open secret that he intends to run, I wasn't aware that Senator Kerry had announced.

Just my opinion, but I don't think it's all that prudent to declare "game over" for a man who has yet to annouce his candidacy. Would you like to declare Wesley Clark's Candidacy DOA as well?

I believe Senator Allen (R-VA) was slated to win in a walk until that "macaca" remark in mid-August. Be careful not to count your chickens before their even laid.

[Matt]

"This is a democracy last time I looked..."

It's a Constitutional Republic, actually.

At any rate, what surprised me most about the poll was Obama's relatively low ranking. But it's early days yet.

[Jason]

Sure, two years in politics is a lifetime and there may be some sequence of events where 1) Kerry suddenly becomes a better candidate, and 2) everyone else turns out to be a terrible candidate.

But, we have seen that Kerry is not a good candidate, and his gaffe right before the 2006 election should remind everyone just how clumsy a campaigner he really is. Moreover, we have lots of reason to believe that Clinton, Edwards, and possibly Obama are good campaigners all unlikely to falter so much that Kerry becomes viable.

While polls are imperfect, I am not aware of many (any?) candidates who have successfully overcome a net 25 point negative favorable rating and reestablished themselves as national political figures.

[The Objective Historian]

NOTE!

The three leading candidates on this graph in terms of favorabilty, in order: Clinton, Guliani, McCain all had/have virtually the exact same Iraq War position as . . .

er, uh, George W. Bush.

TOH