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January 29, 2007

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Actually, Sullivan is making a perfectly accurate claim. The graphics produced by University of Wisconsin political scientist Charles Franklin, which both Sullivan and I linked, show remarkable stability in her favorable/unfavorable numbers. Her head-to-head trial heat polls against top Republican contenders are much more noisy, but that's because the election isn't for almost two years!

So her numbers are dead-line straight, except that they aren't because the election is two uears away?

Somerby is correct, the time to the election isn't particularly relevant to that point, but thanks for playing Spin the Numbers

Lettuce,

Obviously, you're talking about two different sets of numbers. The polling data on Clinton's favorable/unfavorable numbers has held extremely steady and the unfavorables are above 40 percent, just as Sullivan said. The fact that head-to-head polls have fluctuated is fairly meaningless at this stage in the game (Nyhan's point) and is unrelated to Sullivan's claim about Clinton's numbers by herself.

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