Misperceptions of civilian casualties in Iraq

A new AP survey finds that the public is knowledgeable about American military deaths in Iraq, but they "woefully underestimate the number of Iraqi civilians who have been killed":

WASHINGTON - Americans are keenly aware of how many U.S. forces have lost their lives in Iraq, according to a new AP-Ipsos poll. But they woefully underestimate the number of Iraqi civilians who have been killed.

When the poll was conducted earlier this month, a little more than 3,100 U.S. troops had been killed. The midpoint estimate among those polled was right on target, at about 3,000.

Far from a vague statistic, the death toll is painfully real for many Americans. Seventeen percent in the poll know someone who has been killed or wounded in Iraq. And among adults under 35, those closest to the ages of those deployed, 27 percent know someone who has been killed or wounded.

...The number of Iraqis killed, however, is much harder to pin down, and that uncertainty is perhaps reflected in Americans' tendency to lowball the Iraqi death toll by tens of thousands.

Iraqi civilian deaths are estimated at more than 54,000 and could be much higher; some unofficial estimates range into the hundreds of thousands. The U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq reports more than 34,000 deaths in 2006 alone.

Among those polled for the AP survey, however, the median estimate of Iraqi deaths was 9,890. The median is the point at which half the estimates were higher and half lower.

It is certainly troubling that Americans are so poorly informed about the consequences of the war. But Chris Gelpi, a professor in my department at Duke who studies public opinion toward war, told the AP that correcting these misperceptions would likely have little effect:

Christopher Gelpi, a Duke University political scientist who tracks public opinion on war casualties, said a better understanding of the Iraqi death toll probably wouldn't change already negative public attitudes toward the war much. People in democracies generally don't shy away from inflicting civilian casualties, he said, and they may be even more tolerant of them in situations such as Iraq, where many of the civilian deaths are caused by other Iraqis.

It would be interesting to see how casualty perceptions break down by party and views about the war.

Comments

[oliver]

Unofficial estimates only? It's wise to be careful about labels like "official" and "unoffical". Consider -- the Iraqi Health Minister (citation below) has suggested that 150,000 Iraqis have died; that statement was made back in November; and it's almost certainly a significant undercount, because many corpses in this dangerous setting and given the Islamic emphasis on rapid burial are unlikely to make it to the morgue. Thank you for bringing some ongoing attention to this neglected aspect of the war. Even such coverage as it receives tends, in the view of this line of reasoning, to underplay the likely totals. For the story about Ali al-Shemari's remarks, see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/10/AR2006111000164_pf.html