Jerry Bowyer's misleading media bias claim

Time for what Brad DeLong calls "intellectual garbage pickup" at National Review Online. In a column today on NRO Financial, Jerry Bowyer, a conservative columnist/radio host/investment adviser, blames media bias for the lack of coverage of current levels of black unemployment under President Bush:

Each year the National Urban League releases a report called "The State of Black America." Inside this report is something called the "Equality Index," which is designed to measure the gap between blacks and whites in a variety of areas...

The 2007 edition of the report was released on April 17, with the media immediately seizing on the conclusion that "gaps continue to exist between black and white Americans." What the media did not note, however, is that the current rate of black unemployment is lower than the average rate achieved during President Bill Clinton's second term, and that black unemployment has dropped precipitously since the full implementation of President George W. Bush's tax cuts in late May 2003.

Since those tax cuts went into effect, the rate of black unemployment has dropped 2.7 percent to just 8.3 percent. Comparatively, this statistic averaged 8.6 percent during Clinton's second term.

Hmm. BuzzCharts can't help but wonder why the Clinton number was applauded by the media while the better Bush number has drawn sneers.

The problem is that Bowyer is comparing apples to oranges -- he's juxtaposing 8.3 percent unemployment in a single month under President Bush with the "average rate achieved during President Bill Clinton's second term." In fact, black unemployment dropped all the way to 7.3 percent during Clinton's second term, and the average of Clinton's second term was lower than the average under Bush. Here's what the data actually look like:

In addition, the unemployment rate can be a misleading indicator because it excludes people who are not employed and are not actively searching for work. This Excel spreadsheet from the Economic Report of the President shows that black civilian labor force participation has also declined from its peak in 1999-2000.

Sadly, Bowyer's work is frequently unreliable -- see here and here for more. But it hasn't stopped NRO from continuing to publish him!

[Disclosure: I appeared on Bowyer's radio show a couple of times to talk about Spinsanity and All the President's Spin.]

Comments

[Jerry Bowyer]

I think that you need to disclose more. When you were a guest on my show, I called you out on the one-sidedness of your book and you sputtered like an Edsell. It was pitiful. That might leave you inclined to misrepresent my views. It's only disclosure if you disclose all relevant facts.

[Mark Sullivan]

Hey Jerry, I just heard you on Fox news saying that bureaucracies breed terror, suggesting that national health care would spawn new terrorism in the US. I've never heard such an asinine statement! You have zero credibility .