Hillary exaggerates primary victories

After her wins last night, Hillary Clinton is engaging in simplistic primary->general election extrapolation:

“No candidate in recent history — Democratic or Republican — has won the White House without winning the Ohio primary,” Mrs. Clinton, of New York, said at a rally in Columbus, Ohio. “We all know that if we want a Democratic president, we need a Democratic nominee who can win Democratic states just like Ohio.”

She also said this:

“If we want a Democratic president, we need a Democratic nominee who can win the battleground states, just like Ohio,” she said. “We’ve won Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Arkansas, California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Tennessee!”

The New York Times echoed this take in its reporting, writing that "[t]he results on Tuesday also bring fresh questions about [Obama's] electability in crucial swing states like Ohio that Democrats are eager to carry in the November election." The paper added that "Mr. Obama’s inability to win major battleground states beyond Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and his home state, Illinois, is a concern of some Democrats — especially since Ohio and Florida have become must-wins in presidential elections."

As I've argued, however, it's not clear that primary outcomes prove much about a candidate's likelihood of winning that state during the general election. In this case, the latest head-to-head matchups in Ohio from Survey USA, which were conducted February 25, show no difference between them (McCain beats Clinton 49-43 and Obama 49-41, a difference which is within the poll's margin of error).

The New York Times quote about Obama failing to win "major battleground states beyond Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and his home state, Illinois" is especially inane. If we use Time Magazine's map from 2004, there were (broadly defined) eighteen battleground states. (The list did not include Illinois.) Excluding the uncontested primaries in Florida and Michigan, thirteen of those states have had primaries or caucuses thus far. Obama has won seven (Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado, and Michigan) and Hillary has won six (Arizona, Arkansas, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico), although most of Obama's wins in those states came in caucuses and most of Hillary's came in primaries.

Comments

[Jonny]

"Excluding the uncontested primaries in Florida and Michigan, thirteen of those states have had primaries or caucuses thus far. Obama has won seven (Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado, and Michigan)"

Typo, Brendan? You claim to be excluding Michigan, but also list Michigan as a state that Obama won, which he did not.