Historically, it seems to be relatively unusual for a party to nominate a heterodox candidate at a time when they control the presidency. That's why I predicted (wrongly) that John McCain would not win the GOP nomination.
McCain's (exaggerated) reputation as a "maverick" is certainly an asset in the general election. But Democrats should remember that even if McCain does win in November, they are still likely to have significant majorities in both houses of Congress, including a nearly filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. By contrast, McCain would preside over a divided Republican caucus that does not trust him.
In some ways, the closest precedent for this scenario is actually George H.W. Bush. Like McCain, Bush 41 was a former critic of supply-side economics who experienced a forced conversion. Conservatives were never truly comfortable with Bush 41, just as they harbor deep-seated doubts about McCain. And Bush faced the same sort of Democratic Congress that McCain would confront. In short, it's a formula for a one-term presidency.
Also, McCain's age makes a 2nd term unlikely. (Anyhow, I hope it does. IMHO he's already too old.)
Posted by: David | April 24, 2008 at 02:37 PM