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UNC's James Stimson (the country's leading analyst of macro public opinion) is posting daily horse race estimates for the presidential race on his website. Right now he has Obama at 53% of the two-party vote:
It's almost exactly consistent with the estimate by Wisconsin's Charles Franklin that appears at Pollster.com:
[Note that, unlike Stimson, Franklin's graph covers 2007 as well as 2008. Also, he includes lines for both Obama and McCain.]
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I am an assistant professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. I received my Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at Duke University in May 2009 and served as a RWJ Scholar in Health Policy Research at the University of Michigan from 2009-2011. Previously, I co-edited Spinsanity, a non-partisan watchdog of political spin, and co-authored All the President's Spin. My posts here are also frequently cross-posted at HuffPost Pollster and Washington Monthly's Ten Miles Square blog. I also serve as New Hampshire campaign correspondent for Columbia Journalism Review. For more, see my bio or academic website.
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Also pretty similar to what Nate Silver has at 538.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Posted by: Phil | June 25, 2008 at 10:13 PM