Brendan Nyhan

Missing context on growth in polarization

Journalistic accounts of the rise of polarization like the one in Thursday’s New York Times almost always fail to provide two crucial pieces of context:

1. Partisan polarization has increased relative to the mid-20th century. But as I’ve pointed out many times, that period was a historic anomaly — polarization is actually returning to the historical norm last seen in the late 19th/early 20th century:

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2. The less polarized politics of the mid-20th century were driven almost entirely by the issue of race, which created a bloc of conservative Southern Democrats who acted as a virtual third party for much of this time. When Democrats are disaggregated by region (here in the House; Senate results are similar), the role of the Southern Democrats in depolarizing the parties becomes obvious:

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In other words, the much-lamented era of bipartisanship in Congress was the direct result of a system of racial apartheid in the South. When it was removed, a reversion to a polarized two-party system was virtually inevitable. Unfortunately, almost no one involved in the debate over polarization understands these two crucial facts. It’s incredibly frustrating.