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June 17, 2010

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Brendan - I came across Chris Cillizza's article in the WaPo about the GOP's chances in the Rust Belt, and I have an interesting question you might have an answer for.

Whenever Presidents' popularity slips in the first two years and we see more states electing governors of the opposing party. Does that effect mirror state governors in presidential election years where their popularity declines and helps the incumbent?

Not sure I understand the second paragraph -- are you asking whether the president's approval rating is correlated with governors, or whether the economy affects gubernatorial approval ratings, or what?

I'm asking if there's a correlation between a President and a state Governor's popularity in off-year elections.

Clinton, a Democrat wins in 1992, loses the House and Senate in 1994; here in Michigan, John Engler, a Republican, carried the state for Governor in '94. In 1996, Clinton carried Michigan, despite Engler's victory two years prior. Do Governors like Engler of the opposition party suffer losses of support in off-year elections (i.e. Presidential election years) which helps the incumbent President?

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