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 | Huckabee: People who say Obama is "definitely going to be a one-term president" are "obviously political illiterates" http://bit.ly/ebVpmY | |
| GOP reality check: Obama looking tougher to beat in 2012 - POLITICO.com Print View POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO's in-depth coverage includes video f... | ||
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| Brownstein polarization column (http://j.mp/hNLK4m) omits key context -- bipartisan period was aberration driven by race: http://j.mp/fmywIF | |
 NationalJournal.com - Pulling Apart - Sunday, February 27, 2011National Journal delivers the latest political news and analysis. National Journal ’s 2010 congressional vote ratings show that the differences within each party have narrowed and the distance... | ||
| Missing context on growth in polarization - Brendan Nyhan Journalistic accounts of the rise of polarization like the one in Thursday's New York Times almost always fail to provide two crucial pieces of context: 1. Partisan polarization has increased re... | ||
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| .@conor64 on why the anti-Beck movement on the right is likely to fizzle (with notable exception of @davidfrum): http://j.mp/hPc6cf | |
 Conservatives’ Glenn Beck Backlash Doesn’t Go Far Enough - The Daily BeastBill Kristol criticized the Fox News host’s Egypt coverage, and Rich Lowry and others are piling on. But the condemnations are unlikely to spread to the GOP mainstream—and favorites like Rush Li... | ||
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| Another epitaph for journalistic responsibility on the Internet: "If it's true we'll find out. If it's not, no big deal": http://j.mp/gw3US4 | |
| The story behind the "Roger Ailes indictment" story - Salon.com Mobile | ||
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| Listen to @mattyglesias and John Sides -- open primaries don't seem to have much effect on polarization http://j.mp/gshDUb | |
| Yglesias » Do Closed Primaries Cause Political Polarization? | ||
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| Full National Journal ratings are out: http://j.mp/f8ci3F Pretty pictures, crude methods. Ask UGA's Keith Poole instead: http://j.mp/eqgsKV | |
| NationalJournal.com - Vote Ratings 2010 National Journal delivers the latest political news and analysis. | ||
| Polarized America Page | ||
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| Um, no facts are checked. MT @GlennKesslerWP Fact Checker: Lessons for GOP from 95-96 shutdown http://wapo.st/fjgoQS | |
| Fact Checker
- Lessons from the great government shutdown of 1995-1996 The 1995-1996 government shutdown was a traumatic defeat for Republicans. What lessons can the party's lawmakers learn from history? | ||
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| Misperception that Obama health care plan was repealed (22% yes, 26% DK) http://j.mp/fZfWX1 Does that defuse GOP anger? (via @jbplainblog) | |
http://j.mp/fZfWX1 | ||
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| Legal analysis of whether WI state police have the authority to arrest Dem Senate members in hiding http://j.mp/g7Hwvn #wiunion | |
 Are Wisconsin Republicans conspiring to kidnap? | ||
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| More on unions -- correlation of welfare spending rank and union membership http://j.mp/eK2eZm (as always, not necessarily causal) | |
| Union Membership and Welfare Spending — Barry Pump's Blog | ||
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« January 2011 | Main | March 2011 »
February 28, 2011
February 24, 2011
Twitter roundup
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| Besides oil prices, second biggest threat to Obama's re-election might be drag on growth from GOP budget cuts http://j.mp/i0dZS6 | |
| FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - Goldman sees danger in US budget cuts Goldman Sachs warning used to validate Democrat argument | ||
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| National Journal rankings are out http://j.mp/fZfjFO Reminder: Don't trust them http://j.mp/e0SJeL Use the DW-NOMINATE ratings instead. | |
| NationalJournal.com - Most Conservative Members Of Congress - Thursday, February 24, 2011 National Journal delivers the latest political news and analysis. Sen. John McCain of Arizona is just one of eight Republicans who tied as most conservative senator in National Journal ’s 2... | ||
| Don't trust National Journal rankings - Brendan Nyhan National Journal has released its 2008 rankings of members of Congress from liberal to conservative, which means it's time for another reminder not to rely on their fairly primitive methodology.... | ||
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| Tom Friedman makes English teachers cry: http://j.mp/dXllTn Another case of his "infallible" "anti-ear" for language: http://j.mp/gutk8 | |
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| RT @drewconway: Who says mainstream media doesn't pay attention to political scientists? http://t.co/O8mfxAq | |
| The Monkey Cage: When Scatterplots Invade Cable News | ||
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| The biggest threat to Obama '12? Could stall recovery. RT @marketwatch Crude-oil futures top $100 a barrel http://on.mktw.net/fS827K | |
 LIGHT CRUDE APR1, CLJ11 Future Quote - (NASDAQ) CLJ11, LIGHT CRUDE APR1 Future PriceCLJ11 Stock Quote, and financial news from the leading provider and award-winning MarketWatch.com. | ||
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| Lots of speculation on who benefits from Thune dropping out -- Intrade data suggest Pawlenty and Barbour http://j.mp/hfkKiR | |
| Stochastic Democracy: Intrade and the Thune dropout | ||
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| Better data shows public sector unionization and state spending/deficits/debt positively related http://j.mp/ebwr8F (not necessarily causal) | |
 The Monkey Cage: More on Unions and State Budgets | ||
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 | @BrendanNyhan He should avoid "%pub sec wkfrce unionized" as ind't var. Too endog. Better: instl diffs, like whether unions are allowed. | |
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| More evidence elite colleges don't raise earnings - can't be said enough, especially to kids who need massive loans to go http://j.mp/dFHo8k | |
| Revisiting the Value of Elite Colleges - NYTimes.com A large new study looks at whether elite colleges give their graduates an earnings advantage -- and finds that, for most students, the answer is no. | ||
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 | @BrendanNyhan Did you miss part about how elite colleges DO benefit blacks, latinos, low-income, & first gen students? That's still signif. | |
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| More on the (lack of) benefits of selective colleges - they may *lower* wages for women http://j.mp/h6HLWu | |
| Overcoming Bias : Elite College Fems Earn Less | ||
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February 22, 2011
Twitter roundup
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| "The claim that Obama repeatedly has apologized for the United States is not borne out by the facts" http://j.mp/hRNoOd | |
| Fact Checker
- Obama's 'Apology Tour' GOP presidential candidates say that President Obama keeps apologizing for America and does not value American greatness. But the evidence is slim. | ||
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| No obvious relationship between union membership and state budget deficits http://j.mp/hNPrSs | |
 The Monkey Cage: The Relationship between Union Membership and State Budget Deficits | ||
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| More evidence elite colleges don't raise earnings - can't be said enough, especially to kids who need massive loans to go http://j.mp/dFHo8k | |
| Revisiting the Value of Elite Colleges - NYTimes.com A large new study looks at whether elite colleges give their graduates an earnings advantage -- and finds that, for most students, the answer is no. | ||
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| The partisan divide in police procedural viewing http://j.mp/eamgZF | |
| YouGov - If you have fired a gun, ride a motorcycle, own power-tools, or watch NCIS you might be a Republican YouGov is a research and consulting organization, pioneering the use of the Internet to collect high quality in-depth data for market research, organizational research and stakeholder ... | ||
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| Attention profs: New issue of CQ Researcher on "Lies and Politics" -- would be great for teaching http://j.mp/fmxWi8 (gated PDF) | |
| The CQ Researcher Online | ||
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| #analogyfail "[A] teacher...declared that people of Confederate heritage 'have been forced to go to the back of the bus'" http://j.mp/hlyMGH | |
 Marking Davis’s Confederate Inauguration - NYTimes.comIn Montgomery, Ala., this weekend, people marked the 150th anniversary of Jefferson Davis’s inauguration. | ||
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 | Liz Cheney thinks that if Obama had voiced support for the Green Revolution we'd have "a very different Iran today." #greenlanternmagic | |
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| RT @sethmnookin: Doonesbury issues a Jenny McCarthy smackdown: http://t.co/kCMQQf4 | |
| “You’d expect better from a Playmate”: Doonesbury issues a Jenny McCarthy smackdown | ||
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| Palin backpedals: "Obviously what I meant in there, death panels was in quotation marks" http://j.mp/hAITat | |
| Live-blogging Palin's speech - Politico Staff - POLITICO.com "His spending plan does add to the national debt. ... That is the wrong road to be on. That is not what’s going to cure the economic ills in our country.” | ||
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| More budget spin - Obama claims budget "freezes spending for 5 yrs...not going to spend any more money than...taking in": http://j.mp/fWaSR4 | |
| President Obama Continues Claim that "We're Not Going to Spend Any More Money Than We're Taking In" - Political Punch ABC News' Jake Tapper and Sunlen Miller report: In an interview with ABC News’ Cincinnati affiliate WCPO-TV WednesdayIn an , President Obama said that his “budget freezes spending for five years... | ||
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| Deserves credit - note difference from Boehner et al. RT @daveweigel Jeff Flake resolutely denounces birtherism. http://slate.me/g949eN | |
| Weigel : Jeff Flake: Barack Obama "Was Born in the United States" See? This isn't very hard . Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., now a U.S. Senate candidate, asked about Public Policy Polling's birther poll by CNN's Kiran Chetry: CHETRY: You basically have a combined 7... | ||
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| Good @GlennKesslerWP fact-checking of budget spin by President Obama http://j.mp/f7FE5P and Paul Ryan http://j.mp/ep5RqV | |
| Fact Checker
- Obama's misleading language on debt reduction in the 2012 budget President Obama claimed his budget "will not be adding more to the national debt." That's only true if you exclude hundreds of billions of dollars in interest expenses. | ||
| Fact Checker
- Ryan's claims of trillions in new spending in the 2012 federal budget House Republicans claim that Obama is adding $8.7 trillion in new spending in his budget. The Fact Checker examines the data -- and finds them wanting. | ||
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| GW's Sarah Binder offers a more detailed take on the Obama administration's judicial nomination problems http://j.mp/dU6QOo | |
| The Monkey Cage: Taking Seats on that Empty Bench | ||
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 | Fail. RT @GStephanopoulos: Is @MicheleBachmann a @LadyGaga fan? I asked her this morning. http://abcn.ws/epMt5F | |
| Rep. Michele Bachmann – Lady Gaga? - George Stephanopoulos' Bottom Line It’s big day at | ||
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 | I think the Times has been re-running the same Bob Herbert column twice weekly since '97 and nobody has noticed http://econ.st/eTIsdL | |
| Phoning it in: The magic of Bob Herbert | The Economist | ||
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| Exactly - why he's still underrated. RT @davidfrum The secret of John Thune's appeal: he's the most generic GOP candidate http://j.mp/eJGjEl | |
| Thune: The Generic GOP Candidate | FrumForum Democrats have done well by nominating personable politicians with scanty records. With John Thune, that trick might work for Republicans too. | ||
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| .@fivethirtyeight argues GOP field weak relative to '00-'08 (http://j.mp/hzQEC6), but '92/'96 show early polls overrated: http://j.mp/gLacBr | |
| Should Republicans Fret Over Their Presidential Field? - NYTimes.com The potential Republican presidential candidates have high negative ratings, but that does not mean all hope is lost. | ||
| Are the Republican presidential candidates weak? - Brendan Nyhan I've previously downplayed concerns that the GOP field is weak since challengers to an incumbent president usually seem flawed at this point in the election cycle. Yesterday, however, Nate Silve... | ||
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| @fivethirtyeight Right, we disagree on whether GOP field's poll #s affect Obama's chance of winning close race. Other than Palin, I say no. | |
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| @fivethirtyeight I think favorability ratings are highly endogenous for most candidates and will be driven to where we expect given economy. | |
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| Sure, but relevance of amateurs in Cong. elecs. to pres. is unclear MT @fivethirtyeight Cong. elecs. much more robust data set than pres. | |
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| For pros vs. amateurs in Cong. elecs. MT @fivethirtyeight There is reasonably convincing evidence cand. quality matters http://j.mp/hUaiur | |
http://j.mp/hUaiur | ||
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| Does candidate quality matter in pres. races? Not clear there's enough variation to know. Only good pols are nominated + economy dominates. | |
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| Also, estimating causal effect of candidate quality at any level is tricky since entry decisions are themselves driven by fundamentals. | |
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| .@daveweigel: "Poll: Most Republicans Doubt Obama's Citizenship, As Birtherism Becomes a Screen for Ideology" http://j.mp/gv2rRc | |
| Weigel : Poll: Most Republicans Doubt Obama's Citizenship, As Birtherism Becomes a Screen for Ideology The non-partisan-but-usually-hired-by-Democrats firm Public Policy Polling is out with more data on what Republicans -- well, 400 "Republican primary voters nationwide" -- think about Barack Oba... | ||
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February 16, 2011
Do early-stage candidate favorability ratings matter?
Yesterday, I questioned Nate Silver's argument that the GOP's chances of unseating President Obama in 2012 were weakened by the party's lack of high-favorability presidential candidates. Last night, he responded, showing that favorability ratings for presidential candidates are relatively stable across the primary process. He suggests this disproves my claim that early primary polls "don't matter" and are "useless":
Even at this early stage, polls tell us something — not everything, not a lot, but something — about how the candidates are liable to be perceived next year following the primaries.In contrast, Mr. Nyhan has written that early primary polls “don’t matter” and that they are “useless” — and several other bloggers have echoed these statements. That just isn’t true. Yes, as a first approximation, the rule of thumb “don’t pay much attention to early primary polls” is probably better than “pay a lot of attention to early primary polls,” given the way that the media tends to overrate their importance. But Mr. Nyhan’s statement is hyperbolic.
There are a number of problems here. First, Silver is confusing two different arguments. My statements that early primary polls "don't matter" and are "useless" are drawn from a different post concerning the utility of primary horse-race and straw polls for predicting a party's eventual presidential nominee. The fact that candidate favorability doesn't change much during primaries in no way undermines that claim.
Second, the fact that candidate favorability is somewhat stable during the primary process doesn't mean it's ultimately a significant predictor of the general election outcome. As Silver later acknowledges, only one candidate is nominated by either party -- whether the favorability of Pat Buchanan or another losing candidate changes is irrelevant. My post yesterday focused on this point, and I stand by it.
To illustrate the burden of proof that Silver's argument must meet, consider how well presidential election outcomes can be predicted using extremely simple models. Here is a plot from Douglas Hibbs's Bread and Peace model, which explains almost 90% of the variation in the last 15 presidential election outcomes using just two variables -- real per-capita income growth and military fatalities:
The model fits the data extremely well, leaving very little residual variation for additional predictors to explain. Moreover, only one of the two biggest outliers fits Silver's hypothesis. It's possible, for instance, that George W. Bush's advantage in favorability helped him overperform against Al Gore in 2000. However, Bob Dole significantly underperformed in 1996 despite having much better early-stage favorability ratings.
The mechanism for this result is that candidates tend to converge to the support level we expect from the fundamentals over time. Consider the example of John McCain. Due to his high favorability ratings, many Beltway insiders perceived him as a formidable general election candidate. But as I predicted back in 2005, his favorability ratings declined over the course of the campaign and he ended up receiving almost exactly the vote share that forecasting models predicted.
My take on this issue is consistent with the argument that Princeton political scientist Larry Bartels made in an edited volume in 2002 (gated). In that chapter, he examined perceptions of personal traits -- a more fine-grained measure of candidate characteristics -- and concluded that "candidates' images are largely epiphenomenal and have only a modest impact on election outcomes":
The aim of this chapter is to provide a systematic test of the conventional wisdom that personality is key in contemporary American electoral politics. Using survey data from the six most recent presidential elections, the contours are examines of the candidates’ images (traits), the bases of those images in voters’ more fundamental political predispositions, and the impact of voters’ assessments of the candidates’ personal qualities on individual voting behaviour and on aggregate election outcomes. In stark contrast with the popular conception of contemporary electoral politics as candidate–centred and image–driven, it is argued that candidates’ images are largely epiphenomenal and have only a modest impact on election outcomes. This conclusion is underlined by the analysis given of the 2000 (Bush vs. Gore) presidential election, in which the estimated impact of voters’ assessments of the candidates’ personalities was even smaller than in the previous five elections considered here, although quite probably large enough to be decisive in an election decided by a few hundred votes in a single state.
As in the Bush v. Gore case, anything can matter if the election is close enough. Likewise, nominating a candidate with unprecedented negatives like Sarah Palin would likely cause the GOP to underperform in 2012. Otherwise, however, it's not clear to me that Republicans are significantly less likely to win the presidency as a result of the candidates who are running.
February 15, 2011
Twitter roundup
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| Take that, Excel -- ABC's Jonathan Karl tries to explain the federal budget using the world's ugliest 3D pie chart http://j.mp/e0AIQc | |
Budget Cuts: Where Does the Money Go? - ABC News | ||
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| Shuler: Redistricting reform would "lessen...partisan tone" http://j.mp/galOxU In reality, unlikely to have much effect http://j.mp/bk5CVO | |
| TN Editorial: Fairness, transparency make sense | BlueRidgeNow.com Legislation to reform the congressional redistricting process and make it more transparent makes sense and deserves a serious hearing, although it alone is unlikely to end the nation’s divisive ... | ||
| Exaggerating the effect of gerrymandering - Brendan Nyhan Matthew Yglesias correctly dings Richard Cohen for this passage: Congressional Republicans have made a stand on the stimulus package, just as they did on the original bank bailout when they refu... | ||
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| New at NBER: "USA net fiscal stimulus was modest relative to peers despite... having access to relatively cheap funding" http://j.mp/fYNt5w | |
| Net Fiscal Stimulus During the Great Recession | ||
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| Good for Michael Medved: "Obama Isn't Trying to 'Weaken America'" (WSJ op-ed) http://j.mp/gW2nzc | |
 Michael Medved: Obama Isn't Trying to 'Weaken America' - WSJ.comWSJ op-ed: Michael Medved writes in The Wall Street Journal that conservatives should stop denouncing Barack Obama as an alien interloper and ideologue determined to damage the republic. | ||
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| Two cool econ studies supporting the hypothesis that lobbyists "sell access to powerful politicians": http://j.mp/fKnc0W http://j.mp/eKHP9p | |
http://j.mp/fKnc0W | ||
http://j.mp/eKHP9p | ||
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| Necessary debunking of @mattbai piece on primaries by @jbouie - perceived electability, not moderation per se, is key: http://j.mp/h6HSBZ | |
| TAPPED Archive | The American Prospect | ||
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| CPAC renews fears that GOP candidates are weak: http://j.mp/fHGMJ1 People forget challengers always seem flawed early: http://j.mp/eB8Pxs | |
| 2012 field falls short at CPAC - POLITICO.com Print View POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO's in-depth coverage includes video f... | ||
| Presidential challengers usually seem flawed - Brendan Nyhan The Daily Beast's Benjamin Sarlin quotes a series of GOP consultants claiming the party's presidential candidates are "weak": Call it the resurgent Republicans’ Achilles Heel. The GOP may have t... | ||
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| Pawlenty's CPAC birth certificate joke (http://j.mp/gEZ28B) is perfect example of @AdamSerwer's "post-birtherism" theory http://j.mp/hecuBw | |
| Romney, Pawlenty Prep for White House Bids in Wooing Activists Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Former governors Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney, two of the more active unofficial Republican presidential candidates, wooed activists in Washington today with attacks on Pr... | ||
| The Plum Line
- The GOP's post-birtherism After a Republican congressman from Idaho, Rep. Raul Labrador, made a joke implying that the president wasn't born in the U.S. at CPAC yesterday, Dave Weigel wrote "Striking just how mundane thi... | ||
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| Meanwhile, Boehner says "not my job" to tell people Obama born here: http://j.mp/hEw3pP. It's pomo conservatism run amok http://j.mp/efHV9t | |
| Boehner on Birthers: “It’s Not My Job to Tell the American People What to Think” | The Intersection | Discover Magazine Political Misinformation | Via Think Progress comes this video, in which John Boehner does say that President Obama is an American citizen and a Christian--but does not take a strong stan | ||
| "conservative postmodernism" site:brendan-nyhan.com - Google Search | ||
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| Polls asking people if they will or won't vote for Obama without reference to an alternative are useless, especially now http://j.mp/hmgyUR | |
| Obama "Very Vulnerable"? | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, Wikileaks, the lame duck session, literature, and more. | ||
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| Concerned that its readers have been deprived of Amy Chua coverage, the NYT runs its second review today http://j.mp/gU6Iuh | |
 Book Review - Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother - By Amy Chua - NYTimes.comAmy Chua preaches tough love and high expectations in a memoir about the lengths she went to in pushing her daughters to excel. | ||
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| Ron Paul's win is just the latest example of how the CPAC straw poll fails to predict eventual GOP nominee http://j.mp/esxMPX | |
| Early primary/straw polls don't matter - Brendan Nyhan The political press is eagerly awaiting the results of the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference, which is supposed to serve as a barometer of the presidential candidate pre... | ||
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| The tireless John Sides reports from his grocery store on why Obama has been so slow on judicial nominees http://j.mp/hmzMqV | |
| The Monkey Cage: The Empty Bench, Vetting, and What We Want from Leaders | ||
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February 11, 2011
Twitter roundup
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| RT @politifact False for Maddow claim that Fox "said the New Black Panther Party decided the election for Obama." http://bit.ly/faEk9t | |
 PolitiFact | Rachel Maddow says Fox News 'said the New Black Panther Party decided the election for Barack Obama'In an interview on the Late Show with David Letterman, Rachel Maddow said there's a big difference in the approaches of MSNBC and Fox: MSNBC, the network that carries her nightly show, is co... | ||
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| Focus groups are unscientific, but seeing half the Luntz SOTU focus group saying they think Obama is Muslim is staggering http://j.mp/iizr62 | |
| Weigel : The Version of Barack Obama in My Head is the Worst President Ever I'm a bit late to this Frank Luntz focus group about opinions on President Barack Obama. The whole thing is worth the clickthrough. But if you don't he to watch the video, here are the comments ... | ||
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| Must-read @conor64 post on conservative intellectuals who won't say what they really think about populist entertainers http://j.mp/h46ZMX | |
| Understanding The Implications, Ctd -
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan Homepage of the Atlantic Magazine Online Service | ||
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| Frank Gaffney calls Obama "friend of Shariah" in latest attempt to promote Muslim myth http://j.mp/fTNmPl | |
| Gaffney Cites Program, Group Promoted By Bush Admin. To Attack Obama As "Friend Of Shariah" | Media Matters for America | ||
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| .@AdamSerwer on how "conservatives have adapted to birtherism by making a joke out of it" http://wapo.st/eLUWra | |
| The Plum Line
- The GOP's post-birtherism After a Republican congressman from Idaho, Rep. Raul Labrador, made a joke implying that the president wasn't born in the U.S. at CPAC yesterday, Dave Weigel wrote "Striking just how mundane thi... | ||
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| Against facile attributions of Congressional outcomes to "Tea Party Republicans" http://j.mp/fOugDQ | |
| The Monkey Cage: The Tea Party and the Patriot Act Vote | ||
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| Awful movie-inspired academic paper titles http://j.mp/eLVchf My favorite: Honey, I Shrunk the Sample Covariance Matrix http://j.mp/i9jQj8 | |
 Goofy Wordplay in the Titles of Scientific Articles - Ideas Market - WSJ"The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly" has inspired an astonishing number of shockingly bad research-paper titles. | ||
| Honey, I Shrunk the Sample Covariance Matrix - weirdexperiments.com {DESCRIPTION} | ||
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| Support for budget cuts still pretty weak, but up from '09: http://wapo.st/gop4o6 Consistent with thermostatic response: http://j.mp/enVOrS | |
| The Plum Line
- Americans love government spending -- when you start to talk specifics The new Pew poll perfectly captures the contradiction at the heart of public attitudes towards government and spending -- and suggests that Dems could have an advantage in the coming battles ove... | ||
| Overstating Reagan's effect on public opinion - Brendan Nyhan Time's cover story on Ronald Reagan's influence on President Obama opens with this anecdote (emphasis added): In May 2010, Barack Obama invited a small group of presidential historians to the Wh... | ||
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| John Sides asks a question that I've also pondered -- where is the reporting on Obama's neglect of Fed, judiciary, etc? http://j.mp/ihucFw | |
| The Monkey Cage: The Empty Bench | ||
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| .@mattyglesias on why there's not more reporting on Obama's neglect of the Fed, judiciary, etc. - no conflict! http://j.mp/g6wAXj | |
| Yglesias » The Limits of Journalism | ||
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| Abramowitz: In last 100 years, 9 of 10 first-term presidents whose party didn't previously control WH were re-elected http://j.mp/dQd1qG | |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | ||
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 | Mark Bittman worries Walmart is going to drive down produce prices. High price worship is a bad strain of liberalism http://nyti.ms/gsjlDr | |
| Is 'Eat Real Food' Unthinkable? - NYTimes.com The new diet and health guidelines from three powerful sources don't go quite far enough. | ||
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| RT @AnzaloneLiszt Politico article on reality of health insurance costs hitting freshman lawmakers who declined benefits http://j.mp/f8eYI8 | |
| Insurance reality hits House GOP - POLITICO.com Print View POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO's in-depth coverage includes video f... | ||
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February 10, 2011
February 09, 2011
Twitter roundup
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| Misperceptions about government program usage -- part of the "invisible American welfare state" http://j.mp/fwkrms | |
| The Monkey Cage: The invisible American welfare state | ||
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| RT @hardsci Family Feud uses random-digit dialing & makes a reasonable attempt at representativeness. Who knew? http://j.mp/gTX3dC | |
 And the Survey Says... - WSJ.comThe Family Feud is one of the few neutral parties measuring what Americans think when they're not thinking about politics. Its surveys are designed with rigor, but pollsters aren't entirely won ... | ||
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| Motivated reasoning in action RT @normative People Believe What Resonates With Their Beliefs: An Interesting Experiment http://j.mp/hqGOGP | |
 The Volokh Conspiracy » People Believe What Resonates With Their Beliefs: An Interesting Experiment | ||
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| Ugh, very subjective. RT @rcantor WaPo fact checker expands his franchise... [to] policies he thinks are unrealistic. http://wapo.st/hrpzBV | |
| Fact Checker
- Huckabee of Judea Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee thinks Arabs should give up land to create a Palestinian state. How realistic is this idea? | ||
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| Hilarious Politico hyperbole about small upswing in Obama approval: "master of the moment... metamorphosis...swooning" http://j.mp/hYHECn | |
| How Obama plays media like a fiddle - POLITICO.com Print View POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO's in-depth coverage includes video f... | ||
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| Via @daveweigel (http://3.ly/ZTzT), Ginni Thomas's Liberty Central makes #NoLabels look like a juggernaut: 27 signatures! http://3.ly/Xz5c | |
| 3.ly - Threely - The Shortest URL Shortener in the World! | ||
 Good Luck in the New Congress | Liberty Central | ||
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| Interesting stat-based argument that Packers would have been better off missing FG due to psychology of playing for a tie http://j.mp/eakC1f | |
| Advanced NFL Stats: Super Bowl 45 Analysis | ||
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| Glenn Beck's caliphate insanity: http://j.mp/i0gBvv (Spain?!) So bats**t crazy that Kristol compares him to the Birchers: http://j.mp/i6Vn5k | |
| Weigel : Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney on the Caliphate I have been told to watch Glenn Beck's Fox News show this week, as he has tried to tackle the crisis in Egypt. "It's incredibly insane," they informed me. I was skeptical. Why was I skeptical? H... | ||
| William Kristol: Beck Is "Marginalizing Himself" With His "Hysteria" Over Egypt | Media Matters for America | ||
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| Bruce Bartlett on budget misinformation: http://j.mp/h7zr3K New polls on budgetary tradeoffs: http://j.mp/fBAf2H http://j.mp/i8uSMS (PDF) | |
| Voter Ignorance Threatens Deficit Reduction | ||
| YouGov - Can We Balance the Budget by Cutting NPR? YouGov is a research and consulting organization, pioneering the use of the Internet to collect high quality in-depth data for market research, organizational research and stakeholder ... | ||
http://j.mp/i8uSMS | ||
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| RT @DRUDGE obama down 7 at gallupdaily since egypt [or was it SOTU?] // Gallup: "No Egypt Effect on...Obama Approval" http://j.mp/fAwGR1 | |
| Gallup News Minute: No Egypt Effect on U.S. Obama Approval Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport discusses the affect or lack-thereof of the uprising in Egypt on Americans' job approval rating of President Obama in this week's Gallup News Minute audiocast. | ||
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| Also: RT @kausmickey Gallup declares "no Egypt effect"... Huh?... 50-41 to 45-47. // But as @richardmskinner notes, could just be randomness | |
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| As @jbouie says, Obama being most polarizing president since Ike is largely result of the structure of the party system http://j.mp/fwPwNc | |
| TAPPED Archive | The American Prospect | ||
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| RT @AnzaloneLiszt Five myths about Ronald Reagan's legacy http://wapo.st/hE7xXe | |
 Five myths about Ronald Reagan's legacyOn Sunday, America celebrates the 100th birthday of Ronald Reagan, whose presidency is a touchstone for the modern conservative movement. In 2011, it is virtually impossible for a major Republic... | ||
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February 04, 2011
Twitter roundup
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| Very useful Jon Chait review of offensive Limbaugh comments about Obama since Jan. 2009: http://j.mp/fY5nVw | |
| The Persecution Of Rush Limbaugh | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, Wikileaks, the lame duck session, literature, and more. | ||
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| The sad psychology of lotteries from @jonahlehrer: http://j.mp/evKLEm | |
| The Psychology Of Lotteries | Wired Science | Wired.com Why do people play the lottery? On the one hand, the answer is obvious enough: We're happy to spend $3 for approximately 15 seconds of irrational hope, for the | ||
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| RT @sethmnookin Social networks, not seating assignments or sick family, largest factor in '09 PA school flu outbreak. http://nyti.ms/ieSaI4 | |
 New Study Sheds Light on Spread of Swine Flu - NYTimes.comA new study of a 2009 epidemic of H1N1, or swine flu, at a Pennsylvania school found that the disease most likely spread through a child’s network of friends — not in class. | ||
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| Floyd Norris offers the optimistic take on jobs situation with a comparison to 1983: http://j.mp/ella9H | |
 From 1983, Hints of Strong Job Growth in 2011 - NYTimes.comWith the latest unemployment figures to be released Friday, there are signs that the economy is doing better than some statistics would indicate. | ||
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| With the third party dream dying, Broder moves on to another implausible scenario - favorite sons! @jbplainblog debunks: http://j.mp/i6GJSv | |
| A plain blog about politics: Favorite Sons? Uh, No | ||
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| Noonan says voters were "convinced" by Reagan's anti-government stands: http://j.mp/e5UP06 My post on why this is wrong: http://j.mp/hw5INT | |
| Ronald Reagan at 100" "in the foothills of the Santa Susana Mountain Range" - Google Search | ||
| Overstating Reagan's effect on public opinion - Brendan Nyhan Time's cover story on Ronald Reagan's influence on President Obama opens with this anecdote (emphasis added): In May 2010, Barack Obama invited a small group of presidential historians to the Wh... | ||
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| Filibuster expert Greg Koger analyzes the very limited success of the Democratic procedural reform effort in the Senate http://j.mp/elb4aT | |
| The Monkey Cage: Senate reform? Still possible. | ||
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| New Kaiser survey on factual beliefs & myths on HCR - 40% death panels, 41% $ for undocumented: http://j.mp/e2QrdI (PDF; via @thegarance) | |
http://j.mp/e2QrdI | ||
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| Ironic! RT @sethmnookin NYT piece on why humans doubt science includes graphic by autism researcher doubted by scientists http://j.mp/gl3PRL | |
| NYT piece on “doubting” science features graphic by controversial autism researcher | ||
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| RT @GlennKesslerWP Fact Checker: 3 Pinocchios to Harry Reid for saying health law already yielded $4B from fraudsters http://wapo.st/dY7Uhm | |
| Fact Checker
- Harry Reid's imaginary $4 billion credit to the health-care law Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid claims the new health care law has yielded $4 billion from health-care fraudsters. But he's wrong. | ||
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| RT @jbouie: as far as elections go, presidential conventions sites don't have much of an effect: http://t.co/4lf (via @jbplainblog) | |
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| Glenn Beck brings the crazy RT @mcmoynihan This is the dumbest thing ever broadcast on (non-cable access) TV http://youtu.be/PH7GPPpsw6g | |
Glenn Beck-01/31/11-B | ||
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| See also @conor64 on the Fox News con: "hard to think of anyone who disrespects & takes advantage of conservatives more" http://j.mp/h1Pne7 | |
| "This Is Important Stuff" -
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan Homepage of the Atlantic Magazine Online Service | ||
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| Awesome @tanehisi post on how evolving definitions of race are likely to remain exclusionary http://j.mp/dUDjWI (via @jbouie) | |
 Miscegenation Ball - Ta-Nehisi Coates - National - The AtlanticIt's backwards to think our open sexual selves might erase the last vestiges of the white supremacy | ||
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| Great @jbplainblog debunking of Huntsman '12->'16 hype http://j.mp/dNbfqS Reality: Best bet is to be VP nom. or come in 2nd. Neither likely. | |
| A plain blog about politics: Huntsman | ||
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| Huntsman is just the first of many dark horse candidates and implausible late entrants the media will hype to make GOP race more interesting | |
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| Interestingly, Huntsman futures on Intrade are up to 6.3%, which puts him #6 in the field http://j.mp/gywetA (1-5: MR, JT, SP, MH, TP, MD) | |
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| The closest historical analogue to Huntsman? @bpump offers John G. Winant, FDR's ambassador to Britain during WWII: http://bit.ly/hv8vhq | |
| Huntsman != Winant — Barry Pump's Blog | ||
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| One more Huntsman parallel -- Henry Cabot Lodge, ambassador to S. Vietnam under JFK/LBJ and covert '64 GOP candidate http://j.mp/gm8Jqg | |
| Huntsman's Historical Example Taegan Goddard's Political Wire -- News, polls and buzz | ||
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 | Michael Kinsley wins the morning! RT @jackshafer Politico cancels 2012 prez campaign coverage, moves directly to 2016. http://bit.ly/i6IY4X | |
| Raising the bar on the media rat race - POLITICO.com Print View POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO's in-depth coverage includes video f... | ||
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February 03, 2011
No Labels = no supporters
I predicted back in November that No Labels would fizzle, but it's remarkable to see the lack of interest. Despite widespread media coverage and a December launch event that drew numerous high-profile politicians, the group has only managed to attract 18,697 signatures for its No Labels Declaration ("We are not labels – we are people"). It's the same tepid response we saw to Unity '08 (124,000 members in twenty months) and Draft Bloomberg (11,600 signatures in six weeks) during the 2006-2008 period.
To put these results in perspective, here's how the No Labels, Unity '08, and Draft Bloomberg efforts compare to a petition asking the videogame company Blizzard Entertainment to include a LAN option in Starcraft 2, which reached 250,000 signatures in a little over a year*:
As you can see, No Labels is barely outpacing Draft Bloomberg, though it is doing better than Unity '08. All three, however, are dwarfed by the Starcraft 2 petition, which just underscores a point I've made many times before -- despite all the media hype, these groups have little popular support and almost no chance of changing the system.
* I constructed these lines using time-stamped blog posts by myself and others noting the number of signatures on each petition.
February 01, 2011
Twitter roundup
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| Reminder: Anti-Mormon beliefs are a huge obstacle to either Huntsman or Romney being nominated http://j.mp/i9Ohkq (PDF) | |
http://j.mp/i9Ohkq | ||
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| RT @gallupnews: No SOTU Bump for Obama, but Approval Remains Higher: http://bit.ly/fYb7MQ (via @ezraklein) | |
| No SOTU Bump for Obama, but Approval Remains Higher Gallup Daily tracking finds no change in President Obama's job approval rating after his State of the Union address. The president's 50% average for the week ending Sunday, Jan. 30 matches the p... | ||
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| Even Norquist rejects birthers! RT @GroverNorquist: Obama was born in America. Obamacare was born in Bismark's Germany. (via @daveweigel) | |
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| Useful advice for grad students from @Mungowitz (who was on my diss. comm.): http://j.mp/fmYzA6 (interview) http://j.mp/gh8k5H (essay) | |
| KosmosOnline Podcast | ||
| 10 Tips on How to Write Less Badly - Do Your Job Better - The Chronicle of Higher Education | ||
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| Zombie myth alert -- Obama lost b/c he "lost his connection with the people" http://j.mp/dTptSl Reality: No one "connects" in bad economy | |
| Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) â David Axelrod, protector of President Barack Obama's message, picked the right day to show up at a news conference. His boss wasn't just going off script. He was going off. | ||
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| .@jbouie: "if a progressive loses a marginal district...more to do with... running in a marginal district" than Koch $ http://j.mp/h1nZZb | |
| TAPPED Archive | The American Prospect | ||
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| RT @JoshuaGreen Fascinating instructions for protesters on using spray paint to stop police, army in Egypt: http://bit.ly/hZf7uY | |
 Egyptian Activists' Action Plan: Translated - Alexis Madrigal - International - The AtlanticEgyptian activists have been distributing this guide to tomorrow's massive planned demonstration | ||
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| RT @jstrevino The Huntsman candidacy is a make-work program for McCain '08 consultants and people who read The Atlantic. (via @daveweigel) | |
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| Myth: The more optimistic presidential candidate wins. Reality: Optimism reflects which one has a structural advantage. http://j.mp/hTuQ5O | |
| NY Times Advertisement | ||
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| RT @ChrisMooney_ We now have a study *officially* showing people more likely to believe in global warming if feeling hot http://j.mp/hRC8Kf | |
| For Climate Change Skeptics, Feeling is Believing | Smart Journalism. Real Solutions. Miller-McCune. A newly published study suggests to convert someone dubious of climate change statistics, try a more visceral approach — turn up the heat, literally. | ||
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| Wow. RT @AJEnglish Egypt banished from Chinese Twitter: Beijing blocks searches for "Egypt" from microblogging site http://aje.me/i2j9lc | |
 Egypt not trending in China - Asia-Pacific - Al Jazeera EnglishBeijing blocks searches for "Egypt" from microblogging site following protests there. | ||
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| RT @sethmnookin CBS disappears disinformation in a flu vaccine scare story...but the damage is already done. http://j.mp/eKFu85 | |
| A disappearance in a CBS News flu vaccine story…and the persistence of disinformation | ||
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| RT @sethmnookin Misinformation and CBS News's poorly reported flu vaccine story, pt. 2: watch the scare spread http://ht.ly/3MBBn | |
| CBS & the flu vaccine, pt. 2: A little misinformation goes a long way | ||
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| Waaaaay more than you ever wanted to know about the teeth of a member of Congress http://j.mp/fLwJkF (via @HeardontheHill) | |
| kucinich.us - Dennis Kucinich: Regarding Settlement of Dental Injury Law Suit Dennis Kucinich is a Congressman from the 10th district in Ohio | ||
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| RT @JoshuaGreen Testament to Keebler's corporate attorneys RT @HeardontheHill: Kucinich settles lawsuit w/House cafet. http://bit.ly/hmMf8r | |
| kucinich.us - Dennis Kucinich: Regarding Settlement of Dental Injury Law Suit Dennis Kucinich is a Congressman from the 10th district in Ohio | ||
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| .@ProfStevenSmith on Senate procedure deal: "too limited...and too discretionary to be effective for long" http://j.mp/i9zFnf (via J. Sides) | |
http://j.mp/i9zFnf | ||
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| Excellent Egypt explainer and news timeline by @NickBaumann of Mother Jones: http://j.mp/eqEHLN | |
| What's Happening in Egypt Explained (UPDATED) | Mother Jones An up-to-the-minute guide to the uprising. | ||
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About Me
I am an assistant professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. I received my Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at Duke University in 2009 and served as a RWJ Scholar in Health Policy Research at the University of Michigan from 2009-2011. I also tweet at @BrendanNyhan and serve as a media critic for Columbia Journalism Review. Previously, I co-edited Spinsanity, a non-partisan watchdog of political spin, and co-authored All the President's Spin. For more, see my bio or academic website.
Content feeds:
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Email:
bnyhan@yahoo.com
Recent Posts
- New at CJR: Covering facts versus scandal "narrative"
- New at CJR: Backsliding on the "death panels" myth
- Why Obama is in trouble on IRS and Benghazi
- New at CJR: Covering 'The American Presidency'
- New at CJR: The incentives for speed-induced errors
- New at CJR: Exit interview with Politifact's Bill Adair
- New at CJR: The most poli sci-friendly reporter
- New at CJR: That’s not a factcheck!
- New CJR: The Green Lantern Theory of Sequestration
- New at CJR: The third party fever dream, revisited
