Twitter roundup

From my Twitter feed (3/17-3/21) Brendan Nyhan Mar 21, 2011 at 8:03 PM
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	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@forecasterenten: "3 models say: It's a Tossup" in 2012 http://j.mp/fGhgJk My original post on likelihood of close race http://j.mp/evvk26
	Margin of Error: Three models say: It's a Tossup in 2012 Prez Race In a few weeks, I'll be re-debuting my 2012 fundamentals based Presidential vote prediction model. It is a re-specification of Douglas Hibbs' bread and peace model that if nothing else will make...
	Forecasting Obama's chances in 2012 - Brendan Nyhan Over the weekend, the New York Times reported on Yale economist Ray Fair's forecast (PDF) that the economy will rebound and President Obama will win a substantial re-election victory: [Fair's mo...
	Mar 21, 2011 at 3:56 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @LangerResearch: Stanford study raises new questions about opt-in online data: http://abcn.ws/fONPpu
	Study Raises New Questions for Opt-in Online Data - The Numbers The Numbers Blog
	Mar 21, 2011 at 2:40 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Forthcoming AER article that estimates effect of case-specific information on Supreme Court decision-making http://j.mp/ihpJnn (PDF)
	http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~mshum/papers/getitright.pdf
	Mar 21, 2011 at 2:31 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan NYT distorts Summers on gender yet again: http://j.mp/gxufdU Truth: http://j.mp/dDjeSz Past examples: http://j.mp/hCY2zS http://j.mp/eRW5P4
	Mar 21, 2011 at 12:38 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Via @MoynihanPatrick, another great Fox q: If you had $10K, would you put in bank, stocks, gold, or under your mattress? http://j.mp/gb3EEZ
	http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/121610_poll2.pdf
	Mar 21, 2011 at 12:27 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @GlennKesslerWP New Fact Checker: Dems make a bushel of bogus claims on anniversary of #healthcare law http://wapo.st/hcAvyZ
	Gifts of bogus statistics for the health-care law’s birthday - The Fact Checker - The Washington Post The Washington Post's Glenn Kessler fact-checks the truth behind the political rhetoric.
	Mar 21, 2011 at 12:25 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Attention journalists: APSA guides to issues in American politics (includes expert lists and relevant publications) http://j.mp/dN8D61
	American Politics | APSA About APSA Centennial Center for Political Science Membership Organized Section Membership Conferences Annual Meeting and Exhibition Teaching and Learning Conference Other Conferences in Politic...
	Mar 21, 2011 at 12:19 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Fox News asks the public to read Obama's mind: http://j.mp/hkW4y3
	Enik Rising: A nation of Betazoids Recent Fox News poll question:Do you think President Obama is truly serious about reducing the budget deficit, or not?So now we're asking the American people to assess the intentions of public o...
	Mar 21, 2011 at 10:44 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Friedman promotes a Green Lantern fantasy of Obama "chang[ing] the polls" on energy policy http://j.mp/fCt1BA Background: http://j.mp/gehWkI
	NY Times Advertisement
	The Green Lantern theory of the presidency - Brendan Nyhan Matthew Yglesias pinpoints an important -- and absurd -- meme in which liberals blame Obama's legislative compromises on a lack of will (see, for instance, Kos and Hamsher on health care reform)...
	Mar 20, 2011 at 2:20 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @pwire Model suggests Republicans will win 238 House seats in 2012: http://pwire.at/fDxjSd // Source: http://j.mp/gvkQ0j
	Can Democrats Retake the House? Taegan Goddard's Political Wire -- News, polls and buzz
	Margin of Error: Republicans to maintain control of the House in 2012 Unless a historic event occurs, Republicans will still be in control of the House of Representatives after the 2012 election. How can I be so confident even when House re-districting is still oc...
	Mar 19, 2011 at 8:30 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Excellent post from Phil Arena: Signaling Advice For Grad Students http://j.mp/igUokE
	Phil Arena: Signaling Advice For Grad Students I think a lot (though certainly not all) of the difficulty that the average grad student faces as they work their way towards the PhD can be avoided by thinking about interactions with faculty a...
	Mar 19, 2011 at 7:08 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Lovely: "Biden... compared Republicans in Congress to people who excuse rapists by blaming their victims" http://j.mp/eSRhZb
	At campaign event Biden mentions rape in criticizing Republicans blaming their victims. Vice President Joe Biden, speaking at a fundraiser in Philadelphia Friday, compared Republicans in Congress to people who excuse rapists by blaming their victims.
	Mar 19, 2011 at 12:47 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan QOTD: "opponents [in 1923 Egypt] started a whispering campaign that 'democracy' was a Western term for wife-swapping" http://j.mp/em2gt0
	United in Protest, Cairo Activists Now Struggle With Politics The people who helped bring down President Hosni Mubarak are under pressure to create a national party.
	Mar 19, 2011 at 12:44 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan New study on how "[w]eak supporting evidence can undermine belief in an outcome" http://j.mp/gBuxz0 (via @bakadesuyo)
	Weak supporting evidence can undermine belief in an outcome New research shows that people who receive weak but supportive evidence about a proposition are less optimistic about the outcome than people who receive no evidence at all. The "weak evidence e...
	Mar 18, 2011 at 8:54 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan OMB nominee grilled on Obama's misleading debt claims: http://j.mp/dXAGb0 Politifact called original statement false: http://j.mp/hJhv2F
	Obama's OMB nominee admits proposed 2012 budget does not pay down deficit Heather Higginbottom, nominee for OMB Deputy Director, admits administration was not accurate about the budget and deficit
	Barack Obama says White House budget would not add to the debt within a few years During a Feb. 15, 2011, press conference, President Barack Obama responded to a question from Ben Feller of the Associated Press about the president’s fiscal year 2012 budget, which had be...
	Mar 18, 2011 at 6:30 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@davidfrum on "Kristol-Pawlenty falling in" http://j.mp/gGqKz4 More evidence for Pawlenty case made by @jonathanchait: http://j.mp/fy9jB3
	T-Paw: The Generic GOP Choice? | FrumForum The Kristol-Barbour falling out is getting all the headlines, but the real story is Pawlenty’s falling in with Bill Kristol.
	Tim Pawlenty: Why He's The Frontrunner For The 2012 GOP Nomination | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, Wikileaks, the lame duck session, literature, and more.
	Mar 18, 2011 at 6:30 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan More on Palin's declining favorability (both overall and among Republicans) from @fivethirtyeight: http://j.mp/hrCi2T
	Palin's Popularity Declines Among Republicans On Thursday, a poll was released asking voters whether they'd rather elect Sarah Palin or ... the actor Charlie Sheen.
	Mar 18, 2011 at 3:25 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@bpump explains to the NYT why party unity is down among House Dems - the minority doesn't control the agenda! http://j.mp/eBThaa
	Fact Check: Party Unity Votes in the House — Barry Pump's Blog The New York Times has an interesting blog post about party unity votes in the House. As their headline states, “Democrats Face Party Unity Problem on House Votes.” The post argues that Blue Dog...
	Mar 18, 2011 at 1:26 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @sethmnookin: Surprise! False, fueled fears of MMR vaccine in MN Somali communities leads to...measles outbreak! http://ht.ly/4gTgz
	Mpls. measles cases tied to fears of vaccine | StarTribune.com Three more children under the age of 5 have developed cases of measles in Minneapolis, state health officials reported Thursday, including two Somali children who were not vaccinated because of ...
	Mar 18, 2011 at 12:47 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Scientific American: "more than 90 percent of unvaccinated people exposed to measles will become infected" http://j.mp/hFkal7
	Fear and Its Consequences: Why States Should Get Tough with Vaccinations: Scientific American With preventable diseases on the rise, the states should get strict on vaccines
	Mar 17, 2011 at 7:06 PM

Comments

[David in Cal]

Given that Kate Zernike would unfairly smear Larry Summers, a liberal Democrat, one shouldn't be surprised that she tarred the Tea Parties as racist -- so racist that no defense can wipe that blemish away from them. She wrote in a New York Times news story:

Even if Tea Party members are right that any racist signs are those of mischief-makers, even if Glenn Beck had chosen any other Saturday to hold his rally, it would be hard to quiet the argument about the Tea Party and race. http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2010/08/nyts_zernike_tea_party_racist.html

Of course, this nasty nonsense reflects badly on the New York Times as well on Zernike.

[David in Cal]

What is it about Fox News that disrupts the thought process of liberal critics?

Two weeks ago, Brendan endorsed the claim of someone named Ryan Chittum regarding the ratio of transfer payments to wages. In fact, Fox's report was accurate and Chittum exposed himself as an econonic naif.

Today, Brendan endorses a silly assertion by Erik Rising, who asks:

So now we're asking the American people to assess the intentions of public officials? Is this really something they're equipped to do?

The answer to Rising's rhetorical question is that democracy routinely demands that American voters assess the intention of public officials. Whenever an official claims to support a certain position, voters naturally must decide whether the candidate really intends to take action on that issue or whether he's merely paying lip service.

It seems that people who believe that Fox News is inaccurate or unreasonable become even more certain of their belief when presented with accurate, reasonable reporting by Fox. Someone ought to write a research paper about this phenomenon. :)

[David in Cal]

Perhaps the unfair treatment of of Lawrence Summers by Kate Zernike and by the New York Times is an instance of what Lee Stranahan calls "lockstep liberalism." http://leestranahan.com/?p=1132

Stranahan is a liberal who says he discovered that whenever he went against the mainstream liberal agenda, there was a smackdown by liberals, including insults and a refusal to face facts. Zernike's mistreatment of Summers seems to fit this pattern.

Another possible example is an article in the LA Times that mentions "last year's messy firing of conservative commentator Juan Williams." http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-daum-npr-20110317,0,4077099.column

Williams is actually a liberal who deviated from the mainstream liberal agenda by confessing a fear of Muslims.

[JP]

Do these statistical models include the possibility of Obama finding the ring? I think that would influence the outcome.

[David in Cal]

Presumably Brendan is being sarcastic when he labels as "great" the survey question about whether to put money in a bank, stocks, gold, or under your mattress. The first three alternatives sound reasonable to me. They reflect how one feels about the likelihood of inflation and whether one expects economic expansion or recession. So I would guess that Brendan's objection is to the last alternative.

IMHO putting one's money under a mattress is a silly thing to do, but that doesn't make it a silly question. Sixteen percent of responders chose the mattress option. It's worth knowing that one American in six prefers to put money under the mattress rather than put it in a bank, where it would be safer and would earn interest.

Incidentally, I interpreted the phrase "under the mattress" to mean stored in one's home. I think the 16% who chose this option don't want the risk of gold or stocks, and, for some inexplicable reason, don't want to use banks either.

This seems to be another case of unfair criticism of Fox News.

[David in Cal]

Politico says Media Matters is making war on Fox News:

Media Matters' war against Fox

The liberal group Media Matters has quietly transformed itself in preparation for what its founder, David Brock, described in an interview as an all-out campaign of “guerrilla warfare and sabotage” aimed at the Fox News Channel.

The group, launched as a more traditional media critic, has all but abandoned its monitoring of newspapers and other television networks and is narrowing its focus to Fox and a handful of conservative websites...

Recently Brendan has picked up several examples of supposed Fox misdeeds, which were not misdeeds at all. I suspect these may have been the indirect result of MM's war on Fox.