I have a new column at CJR on commentators' efforts to frame the Supreme Court's ruling on health care reform as an important event in the narrative of the 2012 election. Here's how it begins:
Yesterday's Supreme Court decision upholding most of the Affordable Care Act has vast implications for health policy in this country and will affect millions of people’s lives. Much of the early coverage, fortunately, reflected those substantive concerns. Predictably, however, some political reporters and commentators felt compelled to weigh in with crass speculation on the effect of the decision on the presidential campaign.
To be sure, many journalists were appropriately cautious about claims that the decision would have a significant impact on the race. As Richard Dunham pointed out in the San Francisco Chronicle, "most political analysts expect the economy to remain the dominant issue in November." Indeed, the economy remains the most important issue for voters (see point #6). Moreover, since most voters already have made up their minds about health care reform, it's unclear who will be swayed by the ruling.
Other commentators, however, were eager to frame the event as a "turning point" in the campaign...
Read the whole thing for more.
Yes, these commentators are making it up. But, they have to pontificate. Baloney about the impact of this decision on the election is probably no worse than their usual baloney.
BTW some commentators see this decision as a plus for Romney. They argue that it will energize the base of people who believe Obamacare will have a disastrous effect on medical care.
Another possibility is that this decision may hurt the economy, which in turn helps Romney. The looming, unknown burdens of Obamacare must discourage hiring and business expansion to some degree, but I've no idea now significant the impact might be.
Posted by: David in Cal | June 29, 2012 at 10:56 PM