My new column for The Upshot focuses on a potential threat to Hillary Clinton's presidential prospects that is more significant than Benghazi - Obama fatigue after eight years of Democratic control of the White House. Here's how it begins:
The latest investigation into the Benghazi attack reminds us that the issue isn't going away any time soon. Pundits are already speculating about potential damage to Hillary Clinton's presidential prospects, but don't believe the hype: Scandals rarely matter much in presidential election campaigns.
A far more significant threat to her potential candidacy is Americans' desire for new leadership after eight years of the Obama administration. A Pew Research Center/USA Today poll found this week that 65 percent of Americans would "like to see a president who offers different policies and programs." Only 30 percent said they wanted ones "similar to those of the Obama administration."
Some of those disaffected citizens are presumably Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who will ultimately support the party's nominee in 2016, but the problem that the poll highlights is real. Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, calls this the "time for change" effect.