Brendan Nyhan

From my new Upshot column:

With Donald Trump’s unfavorable ratings at record levels, the Republican Party’s prospects for taking back the White House already seem bleak. But its chances may be even worse yet. The doubts Mr. Trump has raised during his primary campaign also undermine the strongest rationale for any Republican candidate in this election: the need for new leadership after eight years of Democratic control of the White House.

The Media’s Third Party Delusion:

From my new Upshot column:

There is no one quite like Donald Trump — as either a human being or a presidential candidate. While he has been compared to populist insurgents like George Wallace and Ross Perot, neither came as close to the presidency as Mr. Trump will be if he secures the G.O.P. nomination.

But when we look beyond this country, we can see that Mr. Trump’s playbook is neither unique nor uniquely successful.

From my new Upshot column:

Political campaigns are supposed to promise hope and change, but Hillary Clinton is not offering enough of either — one of the most important reasons that she barely won Iowa and lost by a wide margin to Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire.

From my new Upshot column:

Why have Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton struggled so much during this campaign? It might seem as if the public is weary of Bushes and Clintons and has turned against dynastic politics, but voters don’t usually punish politicians for being members of political families. Becoming a long-term member of the House of Representatives, for example, substantially increases the odds that a relative will also serve in Congress.

But the advantages that dynastic candidates enjoy come at a cost: Those who end up seeking the presidency may discover that they lack the campaign skills of other credible contenders.

From my new Upshot column:

The dream of a centrist third-party presidential candidate will never die.

Michael Bloomberg, the media billionaire and former New York City mayor, is once again considering running for president, but how broad is his appeal?

Although he may wish to portray himself as a centrist alternative to more extreme presidential contenders, Mr. Bloomberg wouldn’t enter the race with a public image that is especially conducive to a third-party run.

From my new Upshot column:

Donald Trump misses no opportunity to remind us that he’s ahead in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination. During a rally in Claremont, N.H., last week, he said, “When people say, ‘Why do you always talk about the polls?’ I say, ‘Because I’m winning!’ Believe me, if I’m not winning, I don’t talk about them.”

Many pundits interpret these kind of statements as a reflection of Mr. Trump’s ego, which is not an unreasonable view. He does like talking about himself. But he may also be trying to generate a bandwagon effect, a well-documented phenomenon in political science but one that may leave him vulnerable to future disruptions.

I have a new article out in the Journal of Communication with Lucas Graves and Jason Reifler on the reasons journalists engage in fact-checking (ungated preprint):

Understanding Innovations in Journalistic Practice: A Field Experiment Examining Motivations for Fact-Checking
Lucas Graves, Brendan Nyhan, and Jason Reifler

Why has fact-checking spread so quickly within U.S. political journalism? In the first field experiment conducted among reporters, we varied journalist exposure to messages that highlight either audience demand for fact-checking or the prestige it enjoys within the profession. Our results indicate that messages promoting the high status and journalistic values of fact-checking increased the prevalence of fact-checking coverage, while messages about audience demand were somewhat less successful. These findings suggest that political fact-checking is driven primarily by professional motives within journalism, a finding that helps us understand the process by which the practice spreads within the press as well as the factors that influence the behavior of journalists.

From my new Upshot column:

On Monday, Donald Trump singled out American Muslims as supporting repression and violence, citing a discredited poll from an anti-Muslim group as evidence for imposing border restrictions. But if he is worried about extremist public opinion in the United States, he should take a broader look around.

Research shows that Muslim Americans are less likely to endorse violence against civilians than other religious groups. Moreover, the evidence suggests that a non-trivial minority of Americans of all faiths and backgrounds is willing to endorse the sorts of violence against the government and repressive legal measures that Mr. Trump accused Muslims of disproportionately supporting.