Brendan Nyhan

  • New White House standard on WMD evidence

    From Tim Russert’s interview with UN ambassador John Bolton on today’s “Meet the Press”:

    RUSSERT: Has North Korea’s nuclear capability increased during the Bush presidency?

    BOLTON: I think we have no way of being certain of that one way or the other.

    So the White House now has to be “certain” to make statements about the development of weapons of mass destruction? We have far more evidence that North Korea’s nuclear program has progressed dramatically under President Bush than, say, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had to support his claim that “We know where [the weapons of mass destruction] are. They’re in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat.” And when will this standard will be applied to statements about Iran’s nuclear program? On the other hand, Bolton’s statement does sound a lot like the administration’s rhetoric about global warming…

  • Tide turning in Duke lacrosse case

    Writing in New York Magazine, Kurt Andersen joins the emerging consensus that the Duke lacrosse case is a farce:

    [T]oday, the preponderance of facts indicate that there is an injustice—committed, as it turns out, against those perfect offenders. Yet at the epicenter of bien-pensant journalism, the New York Times, reporters and editors—although pointedly not the paper’s columnists—are declining to expose it. “The only thing we can look forward to now,” says Dan Okrent, who was the Times’ ombudsman until last year, “is what the Times will say to the accused once the charges are dropped, or once acquittals are delivered.”

    In this age of CSI, we understand DNA tests to be a silver bullet that exonerates the unjustly prosecuted. As the Durham, North Carolina, D.A. assured the judge when he asked to test the lacrosse players: “The DNA evidence … will immediately rule out any innocent persons.” His first round of tests found no matches. And yet a week later came his first two indictments, of the New York suburbanites Reade Seligman and Colin Finnerty. A second set of ostensibly more sophisticated tests was conducted. Again, no match; and again, a few days later, a third indictment.

    We also all know how police lineups are supposed to work: a suspect mixed in with several people of the same physical description. Yet just after the alleged rape, the accuser was shown photos of 24 members of the lacrosse team, period. She identified none as her rapists. Five days later, another lineup with only players’ photos—and again nothing. Finally, after days of street protests, the prosecutor told cops to try a third time, to show her all 46 white players at once. This time she picked out Seligman and the two others.

    The accuser said her rape lasted 30 minutes. But her fellow stripper said that she’d been with her for all but five minutes, and knew nothing of any attack. Then it turned out that various players’ time-stamped digital photos of the accuser account for all but eleven minutes of her hour and a half at the party house. So last month the D.A. refashioned the allegation to fit the facts: “If I had to speculate,” he told the judge, “I’d say this whole event took five minutes, maybe ten minutes at the outside.”

    The D.A. said last week he absolutely still believes the accuser’s story, even though he has never actually heard her tell it. Not unlike the way he has refused to let Seligman’s lawyer show him exculpatory evidence.

    And that evidence—cell-phone records, surveillance video at an ATM, an I.D.-card swipe at his dorm—looks rock-solid, accounting for his whereabouts minute by minute for the hour during which the rape supposedly occurred. The Law & Order episode could write itself.

    So why on earth does a heretofore well-regarded prosecutor push so … crazily to bring indictments? The Occam’s-razor answer seems compelling: politics. Mike Nifong was appointed district attorney last year, but he has to win elections to keep the job. The peak of the Democratic primary campaign coincided with the rape allegation, and just after the DNA tests came back negative, Nifong, who’s white, told a black crowd at the accuser’s college, “I assure you by my presence here that this case is not over.” Two weeks later, he won the election, narrowly, after racking up big margins among black voters.

    But by then, the tide of informed opinion had started to shift dramatically. Stuart Taylor, the National Journal’s legal columnist, published two pieces excoriating Nifong. Newsweek, which had put the Duke students’ mug shots on its cover in April, ran a long piece in June making clear that the case was a travesty.

    Unfortunately, as he points out, the New York Times recently printed a major cover story that continued to take the prosecution’s case at face value:

    Among his 5,600 words are only a vague 17 about how the D.A.’s political situation seemed to drive the prosecution—a theory of Nifong’s behavior, Wilson told me, he doesn’t buy. He thinks the D.A.’s just stubborn—even though, as he also mentioned, he’s never interviewed Nifong. In a single dismissive boilerplate sentence, the piece attributes all criticism of the prosecution to defense lawyers, Duke alumni, and obsessive bloggers. What about Brooks, Kristof, and just about every other major national and local journalist and legal expert who’s looked closely at the case? Forget them. Thus the Times’ front-page news-hole takeaway: It isn’t a witch hunt, Nifong’s not so bad, these aren’t the Scottsboro Boys, the accuser may well have been raped, these Duke guys might have done it, the case deserves to go to trial.

    …”I’ve never been a source for anyone on any story ever written about the Times,” one reporter at the paper told me. So why on this one? “I’ve never felt so ill over Times coverage.” That’s ill at a paper that published Jayson Blair’s fabrications and Judy Miller on WMD. “It’s institutional,” said one of the several editors to whom I spoke. “You see it again and again, the way the Times lumbers into trouble.”

    Meanwhile, the accused players and the other stripper at the party will appear tonight on “60 Minutes,” and published reports indicate that the other stripper contradicts the accuser’s account in her interview:

    In an interview set to air Sunday on 60 Minutes, Kim Roberts, who danced at the same party where the alleged Duke lacrosse sexual assault took place, directly contradicts a statement the accuser gave police.

    “In the police statement, [the accuser] describes the rape in this way: ‘Three guys grabbed Nikki.’ That’s you,” correspondent Ed Bradley said to Roberts, who goes by the stage name Nikki. ” ‘Brett, Adam and Matt grabbed me. They separated us at the master bedroom door while we tried to hold on to each other. Brett, Adam and Matt took me into the bathroom.’

    “Were you holding on to each other?” Bradley asked Roberts. “Were you pulled apart?”

    “Nope,” replied Roberts, who added that she was hearing that account of events for the first time.

    Roberts also denied that she had tried to help dress the accuser after the assault and said, “She obviously wasn’t hurt … because she was fine.”

  • Kerry calls N.K. nuke “the Bush bomb”

    On Friday, John Kerry made this statement in a speech to the New Hampshire Democratic Party:

    North Korea’s nuclear program was frozen under Bill Clinton. When George W. Bush turned his back on diplomacy, Kim Jong Il turned back to making bombs, and the world is less safe today because a madman has the Bush bomb.

    Chris Wallace was right to challenge the formulation “Bush bomb” in an interview this morning with Kerry on “Fox News Sunday.” Regardless of the failures of Bush’s policies, President Bush did not give North Korea its nuclear capability. (A more accurate formulation might be “the A.Q. Khan bomb.”) Should we call the slaughter of approximately one million Rwandans the “Clinton genocide” because his administration failed to prevent it? Were the Hutu militias wielding “Clinton machetes”?

  • DFA uses flag-draped coffin image for GOTV?

    Howard Dean’s former organization, Democracy for America, is distributing get-out-the-vote sticky notes based on designs proposed by members. One of them appears to feature a graphic of flag-draped coffins of fallen soldiers above the slogan “Vote!” — at least, that’s what it looks like to me:

    Honortiny

    Am I wrong here? If not, is it really appropriate to use an image of soldiers’ coffins on a GOTV sticky note?

  • Predicted Bush approval in November

    Tradesports has an interesting contract on President Bush’s approval rating on November 7, 2006 — will it be greater than 30%? 32%? etc. — which I translated into the following graph using basic rules of probability:

    Bushapproval

    Bush’s current approval rating (38%) is near the value given the highest probability, but what’s going on with the hump in predicted probability around 45%? Are people anticipating a surge in approval after a terrorist attack or something? It’s hard to see how Bush gets there from here given that his recent mini-surge in approval has trailed off.

  • John Kerry decries “swift-boating” a bit late

    Unintentionally hilarious John Kerry graphic of the day — from an email (PDF) to supporters:

    Kerrysb

    He “won’t stand for the ‘swift-boating’ of any candidate”… except himself.

  • Warner not running, Edwards gains

    This is surprising:

    Former Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) announced this morning that he will not seek the presidency in 2008, saying he wants to spend more time with his family.

    He was trading at 15% yesterday on Tradesports:


    Price for 2008 Democratic Pres Nominee(Others on Request) at TradeSports.com

    Clearly, the major beneficiary of this development is John Edwards, who is now the main “electable” Democrat from the South in the race. The market agrees – Edwards futures shares have ticked up the most of the other potential Democratic nominees:


    Price for 2008 Democratic Pres Nominee(Others on Request) at TradeSports.com

    Update 10/12 4:51 PM: On TNR’s The Plank, Michael Crowley argues that Evan Bayh also benefits from Warner’s decision. But let’s take a closer look at how the Democratic futures contract values have changed today.

    Warner: -14.8
    Edwards: +6.4
    Clinton: +2.1
    Bayh: +1.3
    Obama: +.9
    Gore: +.5
    Feingold: +.5
    Schweitzer: +.4
    Vilsack: +.3
    Dodd: +.3
    Richardson: +.2

    The prevailing sentiment, it seems, is still that Edwards benefits. Interestingly, Hillary shares went up by the second greatest amount, suggesting that the removal of a credible “electable” alternative helps her chances. I think that’s right.

  • Bush claims Democrats will surrender

    In an email to GOP supporters (PDF), President Bush again suggests that Democrats want to surrender in the war on terror:

    [Election Day] is a choice between Republicans who understand the most important responsibility we have is to protect and defend the people of the United States.

    Or Democrats who will wave the white flag of surrender in the global war on terror and deny the tools needed to achieve victory.

    I’ve added this statement to my timeline of attacks on dissent since 9/11, which is below the fold.

    (Note: In the email, Bush also touts his “pro-growth polices that have created more than 5.5 million new jobs since August 2003,” once again omitting the significant decline in jobs that took place from 2001-2003.)

    (more…)

  • NYT rebuts Bush’s deficit claims

    Surprisingly, the New York Times did an excellent job debunking President Bush’s misleading claim to have fulfilled his pledge to cut the deficit in half:

    The Treasury Department reported that its preliminary data for the fiscal year 2006, which ended Sept. 30, showed that the federal budget deficit was $248 billion, down from $319 billion in 2005.

    Mr. Bush said the new data showed that his administration had succeeded, three years ahead of time, in fulfilling his promise in 2004 to cut the deficit in half by 2009 and underscored the success of his tax cuts. But that promise was based on a projected 2004 deficit of $521 billion; the deficit that year was actually $413 billion.

    In fact, as we show in All the President’s Spin, there were several such “plans,” all of which were based on various forms of budget trickery.

  • Variety analyzes South Korea’s strategy

    It’s good to see that Variety has kept the alleged North Korean nuclear test in perspective:

    Seems that vaulting ambition is a hot item common to Koreans, both North and South.

    North of the border the aim is to join the select club of countries able to scare the hell out of their neighbors through a nuclear weapons program.

    Meanwhile in South Korea, where the 11th running of the Pusan Film Festival got underway Thursday (12 Oct), strategy seems to be to build the most scaled-up movie event in the region.

    If Variety stops thinking the world revolves around the entertainment business, Kim Jong Il has won.

    Update 10/12 10:13 PM: They’ve changed the lede online.