More bogus mandate claims

Vice President Cheney pushes the mandate claim again:

Asked if he believes the president's election victory was a mandate from voters for his Social Security plans, Cheney answered: "I think so - I think for the notion of personal retirement accounts."

Said Cheney: "I think (for) people who thought about it, focused on it, there was no question about where (Bush) stood, no question about what he believed. Now we're engaged in the debate. We're doing exactly what we said we would do."

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Jan. 13-17, 2005. N=1,007 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1 (for all adults):

In winning the presidential election, President Bush says that the voters gave him a mandate -- meaning he believes that the voters have backed his positions on the issues and want him to pursue policies that he advocated during the campaign. Speaking for yourself, do you think that President Bush has a mandate from the voters to allow workers to invest some of their Social Security taxes in the stock market?

Has a mandate - 33%
Does not - 56%
Depends (vol.) - 2%
Unsure - 9%

Comments

[Michael Koplow]

This would be more convincing if only people who voted for Bush were polled; the question would be whether their vote meant that they supported private Social Security accounts. (Or even personal ones.)

[Brendan Nyhan]

I don't understand Michael's comment at all. 51% of Americans voted for Bush, and only 33% of Americans think he has a mandate for personal accounts according to the poll I cited. I don't have access to the cross-tabs, but the maximum percentage of Bush voters who could think he has a mandate is 33%/51% = ~65%. And that assumes no other voters think he does, which is implausible. To the extent that any non-Bush voters think the President has a mandate for personal accounts, the proportion of Bush voters who think he does would be even lower. And if barely more than half of *Bush's own supporters* think he has a mandate, then the idea that the election gave him one is nonsense pure and simple. We may not be able to agree on what a mandate is, but I think we can agree that this isn't one.