Novak: GOP insiders predict Hillary vs. Allen in 2008

From his syndicated column:

Members of the inner circle of high-ranking House Republicans privately agree that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is an absolute lock for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination and will not be easy to defeat in the general election.

The same lawmakers believe the Republican race to oppose Clinton is wide open but regard Sen. George Allen of Virginia as having the edge over Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee. The consensus among them is that Allen is a better candidate than Frist and will the advantage over him in GOP primaries. The House members see little or no prospect for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Sen. John McCain of Arizona or Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The Clinton-vs.-Allen forecast by the leading House members duplicates the National Journal's poll of insiders from both parties.

First of all, calling Hillary an "absolute lock" is crazy. It's not even clear that she's running for president -- if she is, then why is she running for re-election in New York where she may get trapped into pledging not to run for president? Also, party elites and primary voters are far too strategic to back her without a good long look at John Edwards (who is vastly more electable than her) and John Kerry (who is not). Otherwise Democrats would be cursing Howard Dean right now instead of Kerry. And there's no reason to think she'd be a particularly formidable candidate -- her 2000 victory in New York is overhyped and almost half the public sees her, accurately, as a liberal. That doesn't mean she couldn't win in a bad economy, but "formidable" is ridiculous.

That said, the GOP is in trouble if George Allen and Bill Frist are the best candidates they can offer who could run the primary gauntlet. Frist is an uncharismatic stiff (remember what the press did to the last one of those from Tennessee), and running for president as a Senate leader is extremely difficult (ask Bob Dole). I guess it helps him to be a doctor, but his history of killing stray cats, his penchant for abusing his medical background, and disturbing comments like this will neutralize any advantage that he might otherwise gain. And Frist is from an exceptionally privileged background, which could hurt him in a general election against Edwards (but not Kerry).

I know less about Allen, but again, senators make lousy candidates, plus his racial history looks ugly. As I wrote in February, he's apparently in the process of trying to rewrite history:

It looks like George Allen is trying to clean up his image on race before a possible presidential run:

Senator George Allen, a Virginia Republican accused in the past of insensitivity on race issues, introduced a bill on Tuesday to apologize officially for the Senate's role in blocking antilynching legislation through decades of killings across the South.

...In his 2000 campaign to unseat Senator Charles S. Robb, Democrats and civil rights groups accused Mr. Allen of racial callousness for having displayed a noose in his law office and a Confederate flag in his home.

Mr. Allen described those as parts of collections of flags and Western memorabilia. "I had all sort of Western stuff in my office," he said, characterizing what others called a noose as "more of a lasso." He said, "It has nothing to do with lynching."

"More of a lasso"? Here's how the Richmond Times Dispatch originally reported it in 2000:

U.S. Senate candidate George Allen wears his conservative heart on the sleeve of his cowboy shirt and makes no bones about his commitment to law and order.

Visitors to his old law office near downtown Charlottesville used to see a grim and graphic reminder of his view of criminals.

Dangling from a ficus tree in the corner was a noose, a reminder that the Republican politician saw some justification in frontier justice.

And here's how Allen's own campaign manager described it in a Washington Post story during the campaign:

Christopher J. LaCivita, Allen's campaign manager, said the noose was one item in a collection of cowboy memorabilia that Allen displayed in his Charlottesville law office in the early 1990s.

Far from being a racially charged symbol, the noose was an emblem of Allen's tough stance on law-and-order issues, LaCivita said.

This defense was echoed by Allen himself according to a Virginian-Pilot report in 2000:

The noose on a tree outside his law office, he has said, symbolized his belief in strong punishment for violent criminals and was not meant to have racial overtones.

And according to the Richmond Times Dispatch, when Allen was asked about the noose again in September 2004 when he first introduced the bill, a spokesman still did not dispute what it was:

When Allen was asked after his news conference about the Confederate flag, he said he no longer displays it, and that he is a flag collector. Later, an Allen spokesman said the noose was part of an "Old West," law-and-order motif for Allen's former law office, and it had nothing to do with racial issues.

Lasso, noose, what's the difference? I can't believe Allen thinks people are this stupid.

Whatever else is wrong with his tactics, George W. Bush deserves credit for moving the GOP away from Willie Horton-style race baiting. Nominating a candidate who hangs nooses from trees and displays the Confederate flag would be a major step backward for the party and the country.

Comments

[D.J. McGuire]

Are these the same GOP geniuses who saw Phil Gramm running away with the 1996 nomination?

Please.

I can think of several candidates Bob and his DC buddies missed, such as . . .

Assuming he wins the job in 2006: Ohio would-be-Governor Ken Blackwell
Jeb Bush
Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich (he'd have to be re-elected, of course)
Minnesota Governor Bob(?) Pawlenty
Lamar Alexander (you really think he won't try again?)
Colorado Governor Bill Owens
Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo

And of course, after the necessary heart transplant (insert conspiracy theory hear)
Dick Cheney

Can any of them win? It's way too early to tell, but I wouldn't call it a lock for Allen, or even call Allen the favorite at this stage of the game.

[Greg]

I'm not convinced Allen is a great candidate either, but calling his ownership of a noose "racially insensitive" is a stretch. He was obviously panicky about it too with that lasso defense, but that doesn't change the fact that nooses were common to executions of all races in the Old West. But I wouldn't be surprised to see your characterization taken up, should Allen be a serious candidate in 2008, just as Bush opponents accused him of complicity in the Texas dragging death by his refusal to sign a hate-crimes bill (which would have done nothing to stiffen the penalty).