Mickey Kaus points out that conservatives are purportedly warming to John McCain, and suggests that, in a general election, McCain "would come close to being elected by acclamation":
On NBC's Chris Matthews Show yesterday, David Brooks said conservatives had warmed to John McCain, and Matthews said he'd heard the same thing. ... Let's see. Conservatives are for McCain. Liberals like McCain. Centrists love McCain. Doesn't that mean McCain might, er, win? Who's going to vote against him? In a general election, it seems like McCain would come close to being elected by acclamation! It will take all the genius of the American political system to make sure he isn't on the ballot.
But prominent conservatives like David Keene and Grover Norquist still loathe McCain, and they are major players in the GOP nomination process. Plus a substantial portion of the base doesn't like McCain -- 19% of GOP primary voters already say they would definitely not vote for him.
In addition, as I've shown, most Democrats would already vote against McCain in a hypothetical race against Hillary Clinton -- and this is before he spends two years attacking Democrats to establish his GOP bona fides.
As soon as McCain has to run for president, his poll numbers will look like everyone else. The reason McCain looks so appealing now is that he's never faced significant Democratic criticism. But he will soon.
Update 11/21: Atrios notes that McCain traveled to Alabama today to endorse George Wallace Jr., who has spoken four times to a racist hate group. As I wrote, his poll ratings are going to go way, way down with non-Republicans.
I think you underestimate three things when you go after the McCain hype, (though I agree with you that he is overestimated a bit). First, regarding your claim that he is popular among dems because he has not been attacked by dems, I agree generally but think you overlook this effect on the entire poll. McCain will be taken down a notch, but "Rudy" is far more vulnerable to attacks on the conservative front based on past personal indiscretions and liberal social views, virtually locking up a McCain victory in the primary. McCain though he has some views that would be unpopular after attack, just has the teflon thing down, an unquantifiable substance that Americans seem to love far more than issues. Second, the poll, based on gen pop numbers does not take into account the fact that Clinton is so hated in red strongholds that she would be far less able to put swing states in play than McCain. I think her presence would actually bring out record numbers for repubs. Third, Repubs are far more likely to pragmatically jump on a winning horse without looking back than Dems are. I hate to say it, but Dems' openmindedness blocks them from being in lockstep, some of them would vote Mccain, (shown by the poll).
Posted by: Jared Jaskot | November 21, 2005 at 10:52 AM
Well, I'm no political expert; but here is my take on John McCain endorsement of Wallace Jr.
No matter which political party a candidate belongs to, when it comes time to muster support for the primaries they have to speak to their respective "kook fringe" that makes up the their parties "machine".
So McCain will have to play nice with right wing nutters like Wallace Jr, and "Religious Right" types; meanwhile Hillary has to play nice with Cindy Sheehan, MoveOn.org, and other tree hugggers.
Watch both sides scramble back to the center after the primaries. What fun! :)
I doubt that McCain would give Wallace Jr. the time of day after the primaries.
Personally I believe that McCain was the best Republican candidate in 2000 (and still is), but was unacceptable at the time due to the kooks that actually vote in the Republican primaries. A McCain - Gore matchup in 2000 would have been a no brainer (and we'd all still be using punch card ballots).
Consider this: In 2008, will anyone outside of Alabama remember (or care) that McCain supported Wallace in 2005? Heck it was 2 months ago and this is the first I've heard of it.
Anyhow, my 2cents.
Personally I'd love to see a McCain/Rice ticket in 2008! ;)
Posted by: Oscar Arias | January 18, 2006 at 07:36 PM
According to a biography I'm reading, the Wallaces and McCains are purported to be distant cousins who emigrated from N. Ireland together and have been intermarrying ever since.
I'm no fan of either, but this is probably more about scratching a distant cousin's back than it is about racism.
Oh well, Ron Paul 2008!
Posted by: Matt Swartz | November 12, 2007 at 01:23 AM