« Deborah Solomon is harsh, part 2 | Main | A disturbing AP lede »

November 08, 2005


Thank you for this very interesting article. I thought the effect was less pronounced.

Got any predictions on Senate races?

I know nothing about the political science of congressional voting, but the results look very suggestive. Still, we're extrapolating way off the support of the regression. No president has been as unpopular as Bush, in the data covered by the scatterplot.

An omen??

St. Paul (MN) voters punished Mayor Randy Kelly on Tuesday for standing with President Bush a year ago, denying the Democrat a second term in Minnesota's capital city.

...Former City Council member Chris Coleman, also a Democrat, routed Kelly 70 percent to 30 percent in unofficial returns with all but a few precincts reporting. Ahead of the election, independent polls showed voters were primed to fire Kelly, and most cited his 2004 endorsement of the Republican president as the reason.


Yes, but how many seats are actual swing seats these days, given gerry-mandering tactics like those in Texas? Won't this have some effect on the potential impact?

dang. i almost blurred my eyes and scrolled over the first graph. so glad i took the time to understand it!

extrapolating with my mouse, oh boy is "about 70" an awfully nice number of house seats.

The comments to this entry are closed.