David Keene, president of the American Conservative Union, warns that a McCain presidential run could lead to a Nader-style third party challenge from an anti-immigrant candidate:
Republican divisions also loom in the 2008 presidential race. Arizona Sen. John McCain has joined forces with Kennedy on a guest-worker plan that is anathema to some conservatives. Assuming he runs in '08, McCain is likely to face some GOP opponents who oppose guest workers and favor the so-called "enforcement first" approach.
Keene, an organizer of last week's conference, said the issue could hurt McCain's quest for the nomination, but he voiced doubt that immigration would be a defining issue in the GOP contest. The bigger threat for Republicans, said Keene, is that the nomination of someone such as McCain could inspire a Tancredo-style or "Ross Perot-like" third-party candidate who siphons off a small percentage of conservatives upset about immigration.
And it seems just as likely that a McCain nomination could provoke a general third party "true conservative" challenge from, say, a Roy Moore-style social conservative. These scenarios should give pause to those who believe he would be such a strong candidate in the general election.
I agree that immigration will hardly make a bit of difference in deciding their candidate for 08. Biggest issue will be foreign policy, as McCain will continue the Bush doctrine of preemption and democracy spreading. A paleoconservative like Buchanan might come out of nowhere to pose a great challenge to the front runner. Someone who believes in a traditional foreign policy combined with fiscal discipline.
Posted by: greg wirth | February 15, 2006 at 02:16 PM