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How big a deal is the Mark Foley scandal? The price of the Tradesports contract for which party controls the House put the probability of the GOP retaining control as high as 58% on Friday. After Foley's resignation, the price of the contract (which pays $1 if the GOP retains control) dropped dramatically, and it's currently trading at a price equivalent to a 46% probability of continued GOP control:
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I am the James O. Freedman Presidential Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. I received my Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at Duke University and have served as a RWJ Scholar in Health Policy Research and a faculty member in the Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. I also tweet at @BrendanNyhan, contribute to The Upshot at The New York Times, and am a co-organizer of Bright Line Watch. Previously, I served as a media critic for Columbia Journalism Review, co-edited Spinsanity, a non-partisan watchdog of political spin, and co-authored All the President's Spin. For more, see my Dartmouth website.
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