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October 12, 2006


Okay lets put money down on Edwards/Obama. It's the feel good ticket of the year.

TradeSports is an indication of the current conventional wisdom, not a prognosticator.

The Warner withdrawal really does help Bayh, though that may not be apparent until well after this November. Centrist anti-Hillary money needs to flow somewhere.

And I think the Warner withdrawal hurts Hillary rather than helps her. Warner never had a clear path to knocking off Hillary. Edwards has always been the real threat. The Warner withdrawal increases the chances Edwards will get a clear shot at HRC, and thus hurts her chances.

The more crowded the field, the better for HRC.


And finally, your methodology is dead wrong here.

The Bayh contract increased by a far greater percentage of its value than the HRC contract.

It's the percentage gain that counts, rather than the dollar gain. Would you rather have a $5 stock that goes up $1 or a $100 stock that goes up $2?

There are two questions:

1) To which candidates does the predicted probability previously allocated to Warner go? That's the question I was interested in, and I used the appropriate methodology to answer it (absolute changes in futures market prices).

2) Which candidate got the biggest boost relative to their previously predicted probability? By that metric (relative change in futures market prices), Bayh did bump up a lot, but it's only because he was so low to begin with.

"There are two questions"

Point taken.

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