Writing on Tapped, Mark Schmitt is the latest pundit to succumb to pointless third-party speculation, writing that it's "quite obvious" that McCain and Lieberman will mount a third-party presidential campaign:
It's tempting to make fun of Marshall Wittmann's newest guise, as Lieberman's communications director, as if it were just another twist in one of the oddest careers in Washington. The New York Times has some fun with that theme today.
However, it's quite obvious where this is going. John McCain will fail to win the Republican nomination, and he and Lieberman will turn up as a third party presidential ticket. They will have a great shtick: "We were each rejected by the ideological extremists in our parties, therefore we represent the true forgotten center of American politics." The Broders of the world will salivate over the possibility.
Except, of course, it will not be a centrist party. It will be the Neoconservative party, with Lieberman having taken that angry turn and McCain already there. And both are rank opportunists, for whom "straight talk" is an empty slogan.
There are many ways this could go wrong, but be aware: someone is certainly thinking about it.
Understatement of the year: "There are many ways this could go wrong." No kidding. For instance, McCain would have to not win the GOP nomination and he and Lieberman would both have to give up any allegiance to their parties, which would cast them out as traitors. More importantly, they would have to decide to run despite the near-impossible obstacles posed by the public's partisan loyalties, the structure of the Electoral College, the need to raise tens of millions of dollars to mount a plausible campaign, and their lack of any voter mobilization infrastructure. Other than that, it's "quite obvious" that they'll run! (For more, see my previous posts on unrealistic third party speculation.)
Once again, the point of everything seems to evade you.
Schmitt doesn't suggest the two will be successful. Just that this is one scenario, and one reason Lieberman may have hired Marshall Wittman.
Posted by: talboito | November 24, 2006 at 01:37 PM
I think you are too hard on Mark Schmitt here. He made a perfectly valid speculatory point about a McCain/Lieberman run. Maybe you just don't like speculation because the points you make are pretty soft.
You seem to be pitting Mark's statement that it's quite obvious that they'll run against his statement that "There are many ways this could go wrong.". Sorry, but the two statements are not mutually exclusive. Both could well be true. It seems to me to be very possible that Lieberman/McCain may run together on some third party ticket and yes, there will be many ways it could go wrong, or, depending on the mood of the public in two years, there are many ways it could go right. You have ignored in your post that Lieberman did the exact thing in his senate run as is being speculated about for the McLie possible run, and he won.
A McLie ticket could draw votes and donations from both parties and be dangerous for that reason, it just depends on the mood of the 2008 electorate and the performance of Joe and John till then.
Posted by: Paul XQ | November 24, 2006 at 06:24 PM
Your oft-flogged "third parties can't win!" point does not address the possibility that McCain and Lieberman might have big enough egos to believe that they can win, and run anyway. The possible reward of becoming president is gigantic enough to make no-name pols with no chance of winning mount quixotic primary runs. So your snide dismissal of Schmitt's argument that they might run is quite weak, as both previous commenters have pointed out.
Keep in mind that much campaign money is spent to buy name recognition-- and McCain has that already. Has there ever been a third party presidential candidate with as much recognition (and popularity) as McCain? Of course this doesn't mean he'll win, but it's what he'll tell himself to convince himself it's possible. Also keep in mind that if immigration is still a big issue in '08, McCain will lose the Republican primary. Your strongest argument is the "traitors" point but McCain will be 72 years old and sitting in a Democratic Senate-- why not go for broke and at least try?
Posted by: AP | November 27, 2006 at 12:33 AM
I could maybe see Lieberman running 3rd party. I can't see McCain.
The big question is will the GOP compromise and accept McCain as their nominee? McCain is the Howard Dean of the GOP, most of the insiders hate him, but the base (generally) love him, plus he has appeal with independants. One of the lessons the Republicans should have learned from this election is that they need moderate candidates (or at least those percieved as moderates). But in order to win they have to somehow keep their Christian fundamentalist base too. It could be tricky to walk that tight rope, but in the end who else are they going to vote for?
Posted by: Seth | November 27, 2006 at 09:15 AM