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April 22, 2007

Comments

It would be very difficult for the insurgency to take state power in Iraq. What would most likely happen if the US pulled out very soon is that the Sunni and Shia would massacre each other and the Sunni would lose. A huge increase in bloodshed is likely. The neighboring states, Iran and Turkey in particular, might take sides and send in troops.

However unlikely, should the insurgents take state power, they would use the oil revenue to build a war machine. Al-Queda would not hesitate to build and use nuclear weapons. What do we do then?

The other option is for Iran to take over the Iraqi oil fields. Without US protection, who would stop them? A richer Iran is a better-armed Iran.

There are no good alternatives to the current situation in Iraq, but a quick pullout is probably the worst.

There are no good alternatives to the current situation in Iraq, but a quick pullout is probably the worst.

Why would any of those horribles be less likely to happen with a later pullout?

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