Kos's "strong Democrat" fallacy on MTP

During a debate with DLC chairman Harold Ford Jr. on Meet the Press this morning, Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas made this fallacious argument for why candidates for their party should act like "proud Democrats":

MR. MOULITSAS: No, no, no. You’re talking about bringing the, you know, appealing to the vast majority of the American public. Bill Clinton never one with 50 percent plus one of the votes.

REP. FORD: But he was president twice. I’ll take his record any day of the week.

MR. MOULITSAS: The most, the most talented—the most talented politician of our era, incredible political talent, wasn’t able to beat—to win 50 percent of the American vote. Now, last year in 2006, running as strong unapologetic muscular Democrats, Democrats brought in 56 percent of the vote. We are appealing to the mainstream. We brought in independents in droves, and it wasn’t just George Bush.

In short, Moulitsas is claiming that being "strong unapologetic muscular Democrats" outperforms Clinton's DLC-style triangulation at the polls. But his evidence is nonsense. Clinton never received fifty percent of the popular vote because Ross Perot ran as a third party candidate in 1992 and 1996. Democratic Congressional candidates didn't face a major third party challenge in 2006. It's apples and oranges.

Moreover, even if the comparison were valid, causality often runs the other direction -- candidates are more likely to run as strong partisans in favorable political environments and to move toward the center in unfavorable environments. For instance, the results of the 1994 election were obviously part of the reason that Clinton tacked toward the center. So we can't conclude much of anything from observing that "strong" Democrats do better than triangulators.

Evidence is beside the point anyway. This is ideological agitprop -- just like the absurd claim that Republicans lost in 2006 because they were insufficiently conservative.

Comments

[talboito]

Evidence is beside the point anyway.

Well, I'm glad we cleared that up.

[troop 406]

Dear Mr. Nyhan,

Thanks for bringing the truth and not more misinformation. And for showing us where we are able to receive information and not continue to be misguided. Being younger it’s hard to find correct information to rely on, because all we have are our parents. You would assume since politicians are running for an important seat of power they would have the courtesy to at least tell the truth. Once again we appreciate you being straight forward with us, and thank you for taking time to voice the truth so everyone may know it.

Chris
Joey
Dan
Jacob Boy Scout Troop 406