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September 27, 2007


He's setting the bar way too high, but the overconfidence on the Democratic side is really off the charts. Why isn't Hillary 12 to 15 points ahead of all GOP rivals, including the likely nominee, Giuliani (who just wiped out all but 1 point of Romney's lead in New Hampshire, per a CNN/WMUR poll)? Why is Giuliani tied with her in allegedly solid-blue New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac poll?

I think if Giuliani's the nominee, he'll win. Democrats have done a godawful job of tying him to his own party, and to Bush.

If Bill Kristol put his money where his mouth is, he probably would have gone bankrupt after proclaiming in 2003 that "There's been a certain amount of pop sociology in America ... that the Shia can't get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There's almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq's always been very secular."

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