Bill Kristol's cheap talk on 2008 race

As I mentioned a few days ago, I'm highly suspicious of most expert predictions, which studies have shown to be terrible. So it's amusing to see William Kristol putting absurd odds on the likelihood of a Republican victory (via Josh Marshall):

Last night, for the first time this election cycle, I watched a Democratic presidential debate. It was appalling. But it was also, in a way, encouraging. Before last night, I thought it was 50-50 that the Republican nominee would win in November 2008.

Now I think it's 2 to 1. And if the Democrat is anyone but Hillary, it's 4 to 1.

I'll take those odds! In fact, lots of people would -- right now, the Intrade prediction market puts the likelihood of a Republican winning the presidency at 39 percent. Kristol, by contrast, is saying it should be 67 percent. In addition, Kristol's statement that "if the Democrat is anyone but Hillary, it's 4 to 1" would put the odds of an Obama or Edwards general election victory if they get the nomination at 20 percent. But the markets are currently putting an implicit probability on an Obama or Edwards general election win if nominated at 47 and 42 percent, respectively. If only Kristol had to put his money where his mouth is...

Comments

[Steve M.]

He's setting the bar way too high, but the overconfidence on the Democratic side is really off the charts. Why isn't Hillary 12 to 15 points ahead of all GOP rivals, including the likely nominee, Giuliani (who just wiped out all but 1 point of Romney's lead in New Hampshire, per a CNN/WMUR poll)? Why is Giuliani tied with her in allegedly solid-blue New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac poll?

I think if Giuliani's the nominee, he'll win. Democrats have done a godawful job of tying him to his own party, and to Bush.

[Ben]

If Bill Kristol put his money where his mouth is, he probably would have gone bankrupt after proclaiming in 2003 that "There's been a certain amount of pop sociology in America ... that the Shia can't get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There's almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq's always been very secular."