Matthew Yglesias notes the bizarre conclusion that the MoveOn "General Betray Us" ad is the reason Democrats failed to force a troop withdrawal:
People find it comforting, I guess, to try to convince themselves that MoveOn is the reason our troops will be engaged in at least 18 more months of futile combat in Iraq, but it's just not true -- legislative defeat in September was inevitable, and the war is still very unpopular and still a very promising issue for 2008.
But as he notes, this is completely wrong:
The whole fracas of Petraeus, Crocker, MoveOn, etc. has had, to a good first approximation, no impact whatsoever on anything of any significance. Bush continues to be stubborn. Republicans continue to back Bush. The war continues to go poorly and continues to be unpopular. There was nothing else that ever could have happened. A bunch of editors and politicians talked themselves into believing that this September showdown was crucially significant, but they were all wrong and their theory never made any sense.
The only showdown that mattered happened months ago. Democrats passed a war appropriation that funded the phased withdrawal of troops. Bush vetoed that appropriation and said he would only sign an appropriation that funded open-ended war. Bush sought to portray a congressional refusal to appropriate money for an open-ended military involvement in Iraq as some kind of plot to leave the troops starving and without bullets in Iraq. The press largely bought into this frame, which was re-enforced by the fact that many leading Democrats immediately decided to buy into as well. The party then decided not to try to fight to reframe the issue but, instead, to accept it...
The pattern for the entire Bush presidency has been to blame various Democratic defeats on tactical mistakes (hence the search for ridiculous gurus like George Lakoff and Drew Westen) or the failure of various dissident Republicans or technocrats to oppose Bush strongly enough. If only Colin Powell had resigned in protest before we invaded Iraq! If only Alan Greenspan had opposed the Bush tax cut! If only Harry Reid had used more magic Lakoff frames! Etc. etc.
However, President Bush had unified government for much of his time in office and sky-high approval ratings for a couple of years after 9/11. And despite Bush's current unpopularity, Democrats don't have the votes to break a filibuster or override a veto. That's where the causal story begins and ends. The Democratic base doesn't want to face this hard reality, so they have spent the last six years in a perpetual cycle in which false hope gives way to disappointment and a search for scapegoats.
Update 9/21 2:32 PM: Phil Klinkner points out correctly that Bush's post-9/11 approval surge had largely dissipated by 2004. I amended the description of this above.
Well, no matter Bush's approval, MoveOn's ad was despicable, and should be denounced.
Here's my take on the debate:
http://burkeanreflections.blogspot.com/2007/09/moveon-jumps-shark.html
Posted by: Donald Douglas | September 22, 2007 at 12:16 PM