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December 11, 2007


He was underpriced to begin with, as was Romney. Until just a few weeks ago, intrade was too closely aligned with national polling, which isn't the best indicator of who ends up winning the eventual nom. It looks as though intrade traders are now paying more reasonable attention to early state polling than they had been before.

Obama's chances haven't increased 9 points the past few days, intrade just had his chances too low to begin with.

I agree with Dave. I don't play the markets, but if I did, I would have made some money and would be cashing out part of my earnings now. Obama was seriously undervalued for a while. I'd probably give him close to 40% now, but it is at least arguable that he isn't undervalued where he is now.

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