John McCain has won Florida. As a result, Rudy Giuliani apparently dropping out to endorse him (hurray!). Though Mike Huckabee seems to be staying in the race, it should become something of a two-man showdown between Mitt Romney and McCain heading into Super Tuesday.
Under these circumstances, we would tend to expect conservative elites and the activist base to coalesce around Romney, the more conservative candidate, and beat McCain in closed GOP primaries, as a Talking Points Memo reader suggests. I predicted (perhaps foolishly) back in 2005 that the conservative establishment would block a McCain nomination in the same way it did back in 2000.
However, as Charlie Cook points out, McCain is widely (and probably correctly) seen as the party's best hope of preventing a Clinton or Obama presidency, which may be why he's getting strong support from Republican elected officials. Also, the contempt for Mitt Romney among conservative elites seems to run pretty deep and McCain will get fawning media coverage for the next week.
But there's an additional factor that could hurt Romney's chances which no one is talking about yet. For him to beat McCain, he needs conservatives who were backing Huckabee to switch over and vote strategically for him as the best alternative to McCain. But many of Huckabee's supporters are evangelical Christians who may not be comfortable with Romney's Mormon beliefs. Will they make the switch? It's not clear.
Update 1/30 9:15 AM: Via Ross Douthat, exit poll data from Florida shows that "49% of those who voted for Rudy today picked Mitt Romney as their 2nd choice while 44% picked McCain" while "those who voted for Huckabee overwhelmingly picked McCain as their top 2nd choice over Mitt Romney, 54% to 32%." I'm puzzled about what's going on, but this is certainly not good news for Romney.
You make a good point, and it's not just evangelicals. I've been quite surprised that in this generally enlightened era, so much anti-Mormon animus has been expressed--and at least as often by Democrats as by Republicans.
I readily concede that the story of the origin of the LDS Church is very hard for a rational person to swallow, but (and I hope I'm not stepping on any toes here) so are stories of the burning bush and the virgin birth and the resurrection.
It's also interesting that Romney takes heat for his religion, but at least for him it's the faith of his fathers, the religion he was born into. Harry Reid, on the other hand, made a conscious choice as an adult to convert to the LDS Church, and I've not heard a word said against him because of it.
The other thing working against Romney is the image of plasticity that's been attached to him. Whether or not that image is deserved, the fact is that it's hard to break out of a narrative once it's been accepted by the pundits and the comedians. If you don't believe me, ask Al Gore or Michael Dukakis or Dan Quayle.
Posted by: Rob | January 29, 2008 at 10:28 PM
The Lieberman endorsement was a good late boost for McCain in parts of Florida.
There is probably an interesting story there of the Giuliani camp working for (and failing to win) that support themselves. It looks like Lieberman didn't really go for McCain till Rudy was already clearly stuck in third place.
Maybe they read the New Yorks Times down in Florida. Maybe Rudy reads the NYT and decided they were right after all...
Posted by: Howard | January 29, 2008 at 11:43 PM