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February 06, 2008


Your points are all well taken, though I'd add a caveat with respect to your second comment.

If, as now seems likely, the Democratic primaries will be inconclusive and the nomination will be decided by the superdelegates in what is perceived as a brokered convention, many of the losing candidate's supporters may be disappointed, bitter and disillusioned. That may particularly be a problem if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.

While Hillary would certainly win the African-American vote in November, will it be by the extraordinary margins Democrats have come to expect? And perhaps even more importantly, how many African-Americans would sit out the general election?

And what about the rosy-cheeked youthful voters who have come out for Obama? Won't many of them lose faith in the system and fail to vote in the general election? And among those who do make it to the polls, isn't it probable that there will be substantial support for a John McCain who's perceived (rightly or wrongly) as straight-talking, authentic and likeable versus a Hillary Clinton who's perceived (rightly or wrongly) as the opposite?

i think (3) is an open empirical question. but i am not allowed to start any new projects...

Independents voting in the MO primary would have to be awfully unrepresentitive of independents in the state for Obama's 37% win among them not to be a good sign for him . . .

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