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May 13, 2008


I've been telling you for months that this analysis is ahistorical nonsense. Everybody knew that Clinton would win big in WV based on previous primary results. If I didn't point that out here, I certainly did elsewhere. % of black people in a state is not driving white voting behavior. Correlation is not causation here. Kentucky will be the same story - 7% African-American, but Clinton will win way more than the 58% or so of the white vote predicted by this model. And again, based on previous primary results and minimal knowledge of political geography, this is easy to predict.

% of whites with college degrees, on the other hand, does seem to have some explanatory power, though things are complicated by states where Obama is probably a better cultural fit also being better educated. This makes sense in light of exit polls.

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