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UNC's James Stimson (the country's leading analyst of macro public opinion) is posting daily horse race estimates for the presidential race on his website. Right now he has Obama at 53% of the two-party vote:
It's almost exactly consistent with the estimate by Wisconsin's Charles Franklin that appears at Pollster.com:
[Note that, unlike Stimson, Franklin's graph covers 2007 as well as 2008. Also, he includes lines for both Obama and McCain.]
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I am the James O. Freedman Presidential Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. I received my Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at Duke University and have served as a RWJ Scholar in Health Policy Research and a faculty member in the Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. I am a co-director of Bright Line Watch. Previously, I contributed to The Upshot at The New York Times, served as a media critic for Columbia Journalism Review, co-edited Spinsanity, a non-partisan watchdog of political spin, and co-authored All the President's Spin. For more, see my Dartmouth website.
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Also pretty similar to what Nate Silver has at 538.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Posted by: Phil | June 25, 2008 at 10:13 PM