As I've written (here and here), Barack Obama has been on track for a classic presidential honeymoon before the Blagojevich scandal came along. For instance, here's a nice illustration from Rasmussen of how strong disapproval of the president-elect has declined since the election:
Now, however, those numbers may change (though they haven't budged yet). Gallup has the first partisan breakdown I've seen in polling about the Blagojevich scandal that I've seen. The results show that approximately half of Republicans think Obama's staff did something illegal or unethical:
The question is if (or when) those perceptions will translate into disapproval of Obama generally. It'll depend on the overall strength of the flow of negative information about Obama -- will Republicans back off per Newt Gingrich and John McCain or will they try to make Obama's first year like Bill Clinton's?
Voters are selfish. My guess is that this scandal won't hurt Obama because it doesn't really affect the rest of us. Even if some Obama staff person broke the law (which I doubt), that won't hurt the stock market, destroy jobs or cause another 9/11 type attack.
IMHO Bill Clinton remained popular despite his sexual misconduct and his perjury because we had peace and prosperity. The same will be true of Obama.
Posted by: David | December 17, 2008 at 10:35 AM