[Update (6/30/10): Serious questions have been raised about the validity of Research 2000's polls. The results below should thus be viewed as potentially suspect until the matter is resolved.]
Via Matthew Yglesias and Taegan Goddard, a new Daily Kos-sponsored poll from Research 2000 finds that only 77% of Americans, and 42% of Republicans, believe Obama was born in this country -- a result that suggests the Obama birth certificate myth has circulated more widely than previously thought.
Here are the details:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/27-30. All adults. MoE 2%
Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America or not?
Yes 77
No 11
Not sure 12
And here are the partisan and regional breakdowns, which show that the false belief that Obama was not born in this country is most commonly held by Republicans and residents of the South:
Yes No Not sure
Dem 93 4 3
Rep 42 28 30
Ind 83 8 9Northeast 93 4 3
South 47 23 30
Midwest 90 6 4
West 87 7 6
To put these numbers in perspective, we can compare them to the most recent Pew poll on the prevalence of the false belief that Obama is a Muslim (click on the chart for a larger version):
As you can see, there's good news and bad news. The good news is that the number of correct responses is much higher on the citizenship question than the religion question. On the other hand, the proportion of incorrect answers is also much higher on the citizenship question among Republicans, which suggests that the encouragement of the birth certificate myth by conservative pundits and Republican politicians has begun to activate the GOP base on this issue. I'm not sure if Michael Steele is going to be able to make this "unnecessary distraction" go away any time soon.
(Methodological details: The chart above describes responses saying Obama was born in the U.S. or not as "citizen"/"non-citizen," which should be interpreted as shorthand for whether he is believed to be a natural-born citizen. It also groups all responses other than "Christian" and "Muslim" from the Pew poll into a "Don't know" category, including the 6% of respondents who refused to answer the question among the general population and the unknown proportion of Republicans who refused to do so.)
(Cross-posted with minor edits at Pollster.com)
Update 7/31 11:53 AM: I've rewritten this post for coherence to avoid including multiple updates.
So, the party is getting activated over this non-issue. But I wonder if the increased internal discord (between the crazies and the non-crazies) will offset that?
Posted by: Raleighite | July 31, 2009 at 12:56 PM
Wow, look at those numbers from the South. I think we should start looking into whether they have been exposed to nuclear radiation. Truly disturbing. Although I have been there, so I wouldn't call it surprising.
Posted by: Mike | July 31, 2009 at 02:20 PM
Are we sure we don't want to let the South secede?
Posted by: Captain Noble | July 31, 2009 at 02:49 PM
The regional breakdown tells you all you need to know: it's xenophobia and racism. To the believers, Obama's name and color, BY DEFINITION, mean he cannot be a true American. Whether some piece of paper says he is? Totally irrelevant.
Posted by: Jimmy Jazz | July 31, 2009 at 03:46 PM
It seems like a majority of Democrats think Obama is not a Christian...
Posted by: Mark | July 31, 2009 at 04:05 PM
Racism ?? Surely, you jest. All that was cleared up at the "Beer Summit" last evening.
"Hops and Change"
Posted by: Neo | July 31, 2009 at 05:08 PM
Guys - easy on us Southerners. There are a lot of us who are very sane, normal people.
Posted by: Raleighite | July 31, 2009 at 05:51 PM
We Southerners are well aware that judging individuals based on group stereotypes is predudice. I've lived up north, and there's plenty of prejudice all over. Even here on the Redneck Riviera of Florabama.
Posted by: Lionel | July 31, 2009 at 06:26 PM
In the other thread Brendan asks, "Most importantly, the attention being paid to this myth -- which suggests that the President of the United States is illegitimate -- is sadly reminiscent of the way that many conservatives inside and outside of Congress lost their minds during the Clinton administration. Are we headed down that same road again?"
I'd say the right wing never got off that road and traveled a LONG way along it while ivory tower political scientists weren't looking.
David Weigel over at the The Washington Independent is estimating that the numbers suggest that between 20% to not quite 30% of white southerners believe that Obama is an American Citizen.
The other 70+% believe in a falsehood.
That's the base of the Republican Party.
While it might be a stretch to say it's good news, David Weigel points out that "One thing to keep in mind, if only a quarter or a fifth of white Southerners believe Obama was born in the United States, that’s more than voted for him last year in some states. Obama won 14 percent of the white vote in Louisiana, 14 percent in Mississippi, and 10 percent in Alabama."
Posted by: News Reference | July 31, 2009 at 07:40 PM
How can anyone KNOW the answer to this without legal documents?
Ask the people if Obama's real original birth certificate and all other hidden pieces of his history should be released or not.
Posted by: mary S-FL | August 01, 2009 at 12:30 AM
"mary S-FL", the legal documents have been repeatedly provided.
Obama birth certificate has been shown and seen and photographed and videotapped and still ignorant racists want to falsely say otherwise.
Bill Maher said it best: "we don't have a left and a right party anymore, we have a center-right party and a crazy party."
Posted by: News Reference | August 01, 2009 at 12:46 AM
Missing one question:
Is Hawaii part of the United States of America?
Posted by: Keith Miller | August 01, 2009 at 04:00 AM
As popular misconceptions go, this is a harmless one. The icecaps won't melt because 11% of Americans think Obama isn't a natural born citizen. Nor will large amounts of money be wasted. Nor will the sick go without medical care or the poor go hungry. These 11% will not cause war to break out. In short, this is not a big deal.
Posted by: David | August 01, 2009 at 10:25 AM
As a southerner, I'm not surprised to learn that the majority of birthers are southern Republicans. These are people for whom the War of Northern Agression has never ended. For them, any opportunity to derail and distract the administration of the first African-American president is truly a gift from God.
Speaking of which, I have no doubt that the majority of the southern birthers would describe themselves as bible-believing christians. Rest assured, it's no contradiction down here to spout verses such as "The truth will set you free" while denying the validity of published documents such as the Obama birth certificate and birth announcements.
The people whose ancestors once enslaved other human beings are now slaves of their own ignorance.
Posted by: Mark | August 01, 2009 at 04:50 PM
In short, this is not a big deal.
Well, until someone gets shot by a true believer trying to save America from its "illegitimate President."
Posted by: Duvall | August 02, 2009 at 01:36 PM
I would discount this statistic of 23% as an insignificant representation of opinion on the matter of the South’s belief in Obama’s birth credentials. If I were being surveyed and asked that question after reading only something about a challenge to his birth certificate, the appropriate answer would be “not sure”. However, of those strongly opposed to Obama’s agenda, many might join that 23% for spite. Consider how many would respond, for example, if they did not like the following:
(1) Obama’s transparent misinformation that a single payer health plan is not part of this agenda.
(2) Long waits for Government provided health care. For example, 50% of Canadian administrators versus none of their American counterparts said that it would take over six months for a 65-year-old to undergo routine hip replacement surgery. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2001977834_cihak13.html
(3) A move away (except for the politically connected) from the only market based health care system in the developed world. Where will Canadians go when they need health care fast? Where will unconnected US citizens go?
(3) His way of handing out cash for clunkers; The frenzy is reminiscent of slopping the hogs.(See comment at end of http://www.kwwl.com/Global/story.asp?S=10829030 )
Posted by: vbano | August 02, 2009 at 06:06 PM
This was a strange survey. I would think the "I do not know" responses would have been deafening, due to the lack of any real information from Obama. And noone can "be sure!"
Posted by: mary S-FL | August 03, 2009 at 11:19 PM