An update on state polling on the Obama birth certificate myth -- Public Policy Polling has released a preview of a new poll showing that 43% of Colorado Republicans think President Obama was not born in this country and an additional 24% were unsure. Those numbers are comparable to the numbers that PPP found in Virginia (41% no, 27% not sure) and North Carolina (47% no, 29% not sure) and much worse than those found in Utah (13% no in a poll conducted by local media), suggesting that birther-ism may be prevalent among Republicans in states outside of the South that lack large black populations.
Update 8/20 9:24 PM: Here are the full poll results (PDF).
(Cross-posted to Pollster.com)
Your interpretation doesn't make sense.
By the numbers, Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina are all high--Utah is low.
VA and NC are southern states with large black pops. CO and UT are mountain states with small black pops.
How do you conclude that "birther-ism may be prevalent among Republicans in states outside the South that lack large black populations" when CO, VA, and NC are the high reads, and UT is the low one? For your conclusion to be true, wouldn't we need CO and UT to be the high reads, and VA and NC the low ones?
Posted by: Adam | August 19, 2009 at 11:17 AM
Adam - it's a reference to my previous post, which pointed out that birtherism was low in Utah (low black pop.) and high in VA and NC (high black pop.). The point I'm trying to make is that the Colorado poll is inconsistent with that post (i.e. it has a low black pop. and high birther beliefs among Republicans). Apologies if it is unclear.
Posted by: bnyhan | August 19, 2009 at 11:42 AM
What about how well-educated the states are, as suggested by Robert David Sullivan and David in your previous post?
Posted by: rone | August 19, 2009 at 11:59 AM
Nothing is popping out when I look at percent of the state population with a high school or college degree, though I don't have figures specifically for Republicans. Also, I'm concerned that the difference in wording and methodology between the Public Policy Polling poll and the Utah poll is a problem.
Posted by: bnyhan | August 20, 2009 at 08:12 AM