Sarah Palin continues to post gruesome poll numbers for a supposedly serious presidential contender. The latest CNN poll found that only 29 percent of Americans believe she is qualified to be president. That number represents a significant decline from perceptions of her qualifications during the campaign, which were already terrible.
Indeed, perceptions of Palin's qualifications are unprecedented among presidential/vice presidential nominees and major presidential contenders in recent years. From Joe Biden to George W. Bush, no one has been perceived as less qualified since Dan Quayle and Ross Perot. The Palin-Quayle parallel, which Jon Chait nailed soon after her nomination, is particularly striking. Each was a surprise VP pick who sparked initial enthusiasm but later became widely perceived as incompetent.
To illustrate the point, here's a comparison of poll results measuring perceptions of Palin and Quayle's qualifications based on time elapsed since their initial convention speeches*:
Though Quayle served as vice president for four years (and got a small bump in the Gulf War period), he could never overcome the perception that he was not qualified to be president. I expect Palin's trajectory to be very similar.
Update 10/30 1:26 PM: Credit where credit is due -- Phil Klinkner raised the Palin-Quayle parallel back on August 30, 2008, citing a Rasmussen poll.
Update 10/31 10:48 AM: In the post above, I didn't make explicit what happened to Quayle after his tenure as vice president. For those who don't know, he withdrew from the presidential race in 1996 and declined to run in 2000. Though he gave various reasons for his decisions to withdraw, the fundamental problem was his perceived lack of qualification to be president. Palin may run in 2012 or 2016 -- the base likes her more than it did Quayle -- but she will face the same obstacles that he did in trying to mount a successful campaign.
* The polls that were included used national adult and registered voter samples with binary qualified/not qualified questions.
(Cross-posted to Pollster.com)
I believe Palin's too inexperienced to be President and Quayle's not smart enough. IMHO the perception that they were unqualified has been driven by the media, who played "gotcha" over and over with them. I actually appreciate the media destroying the Presidential hopes of these two unqualified Republicans. I only wish they would do the same for unqualified Demcrats.
Biden appears to me no smarter than Quayle, and Obama had as little experience as Palin. However, they've been treated very well by the media. Unless you read right-wing sources, you wouldn't realize just how many embarassing sound bites were not given widespread coverage. E.g., during the campaign, Obama claimed to have visited 57 states with one left to go. If Dan Quayle or George Bush had made that statement I think it would have gotten a lot more coverage.
Posted by: David | October 30, 2009 at 03:47 PM
Palin knows all of this all too well.
She chose the path marked KA-CHING. NOT so stupid after all, in that cunning rat- like way.
You can compare her all you want to Biden, Obama, I don't GET those comparisons but it doesn't make her any brighter or more desirable as president.
All of Palin's supporters seem to drag someone down FIRST, as IF it made Palin more palatable by this negative comparison. WELL IF Obama made a mistake with number of states,THEN Palin, BY COMPARISON, saying she READS ALL OF 'EM doesn't seem so clueless...except IT DOES. She DOES seem clueless, over and over again, just clueless and you can compare her ARTHRITUS and DENTAL SURGERY, but she still seems like not such a good deal.
Sarah Palin/FABIO 2012!
Posted by: DEO | October 30, 2009 at 06:23 PM
david above is correct that a vicious and deceitful press campaign knocked down Palin's numbers and a see-no-evil media boosted second- or third-raters like Obama and Biden. Biden famously said that Lebanon had kicked Hezbollah out of Lebanon at the very moment that Hezbollah was becoming the leading power in the country through political assassinations of its opponents. And Joe's string of absurd gaffes continues as he cites FDR's "fireside chats" and inaugural address on TV. And Obama is simply a third-rate incompetent whose Columbia U. thesis on US/Soviet disarmament conveniently disappeared along with all the finance records for his two State Senate campaigns.
Obama is corrupt, a child of the crooked Chicago political machine whose analogue in the private sector was Al Capone's mafia.
Posted by: daveinboca | October 31, 2009 at 03:50 AM
Something in Sarah's favor is that Barrack proved someone doesn't have to be qualified to be voted in as President. So what's your point Brendan? Couldn't come up with any original thoughts for an article?
Posted by: Wdyfo | October 31, 2009 at 07:24 AM
Self-centered, selfish, and amoral people seem to have a problem with Sarah Palin. If she were pro-abortion, pro-trial attorney, anti-hunting, pro-gun ban, and pro-gays, the Democrats would love her. And you Lefties think you are superior. Hog wash .. I detest people who find fault with people who have morals and a principled outlook on life. Eat your cake while you can!
Posted by: A W | October 31, 2009 at 09:49 AM
Oh I love the way the left are scared of OUR Margaret Thatcher. Palin our iron lady!!! The left hated Thatcher and they hate Palin.. Why? Because they hate straight talk and honesty.
Sarah is going to be President in 2012 and will win in a landslide just like Reagan.. THAT'S WHY the left is scrared.
One easy question; If Palin was inconsequential why the enormous energy in destroying her??
Posted by: Jeff | October 31, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Well, I don't know about you but this actually sums it up for me.
Obama:
Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in
International Relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude
Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political
Science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)
vs.
McCain: United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899
Palin: Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism
Posted by: SW | November 01, 2009 at 01:48 AM