« How much is health care hurting Dems? | Main | Obama on approval-driven media narratives »

January 22, 2010


Brendan says, "character traits are perceived by the press in light of how the president is doing in the polls and in Washington, not the other way around." However, I think he proved only the first half of that assertion. In other words, I think his examples demonstrate only that perceived character traits are influenced to some degree by the President's poll ratings. It could be interesting to do some research to determine the magnitude of the various influences.

Do presidential approval ratings/electoral wins really vary symmetrically with economic growth/performance? What other factors matter? I'm generally pretty convinced by the general argument: structural forces determine elections, in the same way that demographic data is a very reliable predictor, on an individual level, of a person's future income, marriage status, occupation, voting behavior, etc....but then I think of a campaign like Coakley's where clearly it was an election lost because of a campaign very ineptly managed....

The comments to this entry are closed.