Why Hillary Clinton should be Sarah Palin's role model

Is Sarah Palin too polarizing to be elected president? This has become a central question in political commentary on the former Alaska governor and GOP vice presidential nominee. What people often fail to recognize, however, is that the debate over Palin's electability mirrors the debate over Hillary Clinton's electability during the 2006-2008 period.

Clinton may have a very different personal background from Palin, but both women share a common characteristic -- they have sharply polarizing public profiles. However, as this plot of Gallup data illustrates, they managed their image very differently during the pre-campaign period:

Between 2001 and 2006, Clinton largely kept her head down and worked hard as a senator, building relationships with her Republican colleagues and avoiding high-profile controversies. As a result, much of the anti-Hillary sentiment that had built up during the 1990s remained latent, allowing her to cultivate elite support for a campaign that came extremely close to securing the Democratic nomination.

By contrast, Palin's repeated engagement in high-profile media controversies has reduced her public support from the low levels she had reached by the end of the 2008 campaign (when she may have hurt John McCain significantly). Even before she comes under fire from other Republicans (as she eventually will if she runs), more of the public has an unfavorable impression of her than has a favorable one.

All is not lost for Palin, however. Though Clinton started 2007 as a less polarizing figure than Palin, the public quickly reverted to being sharply divided about her as she began to campaign actively for the Democratic nomination. Assuming Palin's remaining supporters will stick by her, she may end up with a similar profile in April 2011 as Hillary had in April 2007. In that case, a successful nomination campaign is plausible (and even a general election victory if the economy is in bad enough shape). However, her failure to improve her image during this pre-primary period may cost her the elite support she needs to win the GOP nomination.

Update 7/27 12:34 PM: It's of course possible that Palin isn't going to run for preisdent, which would certainly help explain her decision to do things like filming a reality TV episode with Kate Gosselin rather than developing her policy resume.

[Cross-posted to Pollster.com]

Comments

[Jinchi]

I know you have a thing against mind-readers, so why do you fall into the trap of believing that Sarah Palin wants to be president?

Everything she does indicates that she doesn't. She resigned as governor to make her fortune on the speaking circuit. She has no interest in learning the details of public policy. She hasn't spent time developing her credibility on international affairs. She picks public fights with her daughter's teenage boyfriend. She hasn't accidentally alienated large segments of the public, she deliberately stakes out divisive positions to rally her most ideological fan base. None of this makes sense for a person hoping to run for higher office. It makes perfect sense for someone who wants to stay in the celebrity spotlight.

Palin has given up elective politics to make her fortune as a conservative polemicist. You might as well ask whether Rush Limbaugh is using the right strategy to win the presidency in 2012. He isn't. Neither is she.

[metrichead.blogspot.com]

I agree mostly with the above comment. Sarah Palin isn't politically savvy, but she is very Sarah-savvy. She knows she's a draw.

(All but the first, second, and fifth sentences could be attributed to a handful of Democratic politicians too, e.g., Al Sharpton).

Why would she ever want to be President? It's only $400,000 a year. She couldn't handle three full years of being the Governor in Alaska, where she made over $100k annually. She could probably make more hosting a talk show in less than two years what she could make if she served as President in eight years. Not to mention additional endorsement deals, book deals, and public speaking/appearance engagements she'll cash in on.

[David in Cal]

Of course I can't read Palin's mind either, but Jinchi's points sound convincing. I would just add that maintaining the possibility of running for President may be her way keeping herself in the limelight.

[Toy Needle]

Jinchi's right. Palin doesn't need to run for President. All she has to do for now is make people *think* she will. It's all about the money and fame (would HC have gone camping with Kate Gosselin? Really?) and nothing much higher than that.

[bnyhan]

Wow, I had no idea -- just tweeted about this. The post of course assumes she is running for president, but it's certainly plausible that she won't.