New CNN poll on birther myth

CNN has released a new poll on the birther myth and the news, as usual, is depressing. Only 42% of the public thinks Obama was "definitely born in the United States" and 27% of Americans specifically stated that President Obama was "probably" or "definitely" born in another country.

Here's the wording of the question and a bar chart of the results:

Do you think Barack Obama was definitely born in the United States, probably born in the United States, probably born in another country, or definitely born in another country?

The cross-tabs by party (PDF) show that 41% of Republicans and 29% of independents said Obama was "probably" or "definitely" not born here:

To its credit, CNN is very clear about the facts:

It's surely not what the leader of the free world wants for his birthday. But, for a stubborn group of Americans, conspiracy theories about President Obama's birthplace are the gifts that keep on giving...

Yet there is ample evidence that defies Limbaugh's statement and the beliefs of the 27-percent of Americans that, according to the poll, doubt the president's birthplace. CNN and other news organizations have thoroughly debunked the rumors.

Most impressively, they even put giant images of Obama's certification of live birth and birth announcement at the top of the story:

For more on why misperceptions are so difficult to correct, see my research with Jason Reifler (PDF).

[Cross-posted on Pollster.com]

Comments

[Scott]

Nothing has been "debunked". The detailed arguments addressing the Certification of Live Birth and the newspaper announcements have simply been ignored consistently. In the 60s, a COLB could be obtained by a parent whether or not the child was actually born in Hawaii. Newspapers were in the practice of posting announcements based on this document alone. The long-form -Certificate- of Live Birth, on the other hand, contains details such as hospital and attending physician. At the time, it was a hand-written, signed document and could not be obtained unless one was actually born in Hawaii. -Every- person born in a hospital in Hawaii has one of these. Obama has spent a very large sum of money fighting requests that he release this document. Wouldn't it be far less expensive, and wouldn't it put this whole issue to rest, if he was to simply show this to the world? This is what is truly incomprehensible. This is not about race or party (personally, I wish George W. had been ineligible to be president). This is about the law of the land, and whether or not it is okay to selectively ignore that law.

[David in Cal]

I believe Obama was born in the US. Furthermore, even if he was born abroad, I believe he'd still qualify as a "natural-born citizen", because his mother was an American citizen.

However, I would offer a correction to Brendan's comment that "CNN is very clear about the facts." Actually, CNN was very clear about some of the facts -- namely the facts on one side of the debate only. In particular, that CNN article would have had a different impact if it had included the fact that although Mr. Obama had released his COLB, he has refused to release his birth certificate.

[Jinchi]

In particular, that CNN article would have had a different impact if it had included the fact that although Mr. Obama had released his COLB, he has refused to release his birth certificate.

Please remind us which other U.S. president has ever provided us with his birth certificate. Then explain to us why this president should being obligated to do what none has ever been asked to do before.

[DB]

Guys like Scott and David in Cal are the same type who believed Hillary Clinton murdered Vince Foster, or that Bill Clinton was part of a large cocaine smuggling ring from the airport at Mena, Arkansas. The country is full of nuts. And they just keep getting nuttier.

It wouldn't matter what documents were released. The nuts would simply claim they were fraudulent, or they would have new "questions". That's why they insist on this stupid COLB thing. If it wasn't that, it would be something else.

[Rob]

Obama is certainly under no obligation to release a certified copy of the actual contemporaneous birth certificate, and it's true that not everyone will be satisfied by that. Still, the failure to release it is very puzzling, at least if Obama wants to minimize the perception that he was born outside the U.S. (You may recall that John Kerry has been similarly coy about releasing his full military records.)

Given the Administration's withholding of the single most important document relating to this matter, I'm afraid the best I can do on the CNN survey is to answer, "Probably." Please, President Obama, give me the information I need to say, "Definitely."

[24AheadDotCom]

The last time I left a comment here was on this issue, and Nyhan deleted it. So, he'll probably do the same for this comment since the CNN article he links contains three lies about basic, indisputable, easy-to-understand facts:

http://24ahead.com/n/10147

Nyhan would have you believe an article that not only contains three fundamental lies but that can't even get the name of a document right.

[David in Cal]

DB -- I probably shouldn't get in a p*ssing match with you. However, first of all, I said that I believe Obama was born in the US. Second, I made two assertions that are factually correct:

• Obama hasn't released his birth certificate.

• The cited CNN story didn't mention that Obama hadn't released his birth certificate.

Jinchi, no past President has been in a situation where a large number of Americans doubted whether he was a natural born citizen. IMHO any President should make it clear that he's qualified, if there's significant doubt. I think Obama has a Hawaiian birth ciertificate, but I don't know why he has chosen not to release it.

[DB]

The cited CNN story didn't mention that Obama hadn't released his birth certificate.

This is not factually correct.

[24AheadDotCom]

Actually, he hasn't released his birth certificate.

What he's done is released a *picture* of what he says is his *certification*. An image search will show what a *certificate* looked like. And, outside the Obama camp, the only people who claim to have seen the certification are two non-expert employees of an organization that covered for Obama on HCR (by falsely stating that illegal aliens wouldn't be able to obtain coverage). And, the state of HI admits that they haven't authenticated the picture on Obama's site.

To help make that clearer go into court where a judge wants to see your Form 3000-A and instead show him a picture of your Form 3000-B on your laptop. He'll point out that for all he knows you could have modified the picture, plus it's the wrong form. He might be willing to accept it in lieu of the actual form, but that would require the issuing agency to authenticate it, which hasn't happened in this case.

This issue is basically an intelligence and integrity test, with many failing (in some cases intentionally).

[David in Cal]

On more carefully reading the CNN article, they wrote: Hawaii has released a copy of the president's birth certificate - officially called a "certificate of live birth." Now the COLB is acceptible for many purposes, but it's not as good as a Birth Certificate. E.g., to get a passport the State Dept. asks for a birth certificate that includes a doctor's signature, name of hospital, approrpiate seal, etc.

The State Dept. also recognizes what they call a “short abstract version of a birth certificate.”
"This is a re-issued birth certificate which is not a problem because people lose their birth certificates all the time but this one is missing vital information.

"To be truthful people get US Passports everyday with short abstract version’s of their birth certificates that are missing a reference to their original birth “source documents” but the State Department can and does ask for source documents when there are questions or suspicions."

The COLB is an example of a “short abstract version of a birth certificate.” It's good, but not as good as a Birth Certificate.

CNN's story completely hides the fact that Obama released only his short abstract version, but not his birth certificate. If you want to say that the COLB alone should be convincing, then I agree. But, to pretend that the COLB is the same as the Birth Certificate is very bad reporting. Either CNN was ignorant of the distinction, or they were spinning to fool the reader into thinking that there was no missing document.

[kthomas]

The poll says two things:

That over 25% of our population are idiotic sheep. That many Americans still can't handle a black man in positions of authority.

I'm registered Republican and I am proud of my vote for Mr Obama. At this point, I would happily vote for him a second timem, black skin and all.

[devin]

I still don't understand why it matters, since being born to a US citizen makes him a "natural born US citizen" even if he was born on Mars. Of course, I doubt many birthers have read the Constitution, so I guess that's why they think where he was born is even relevant.

[JP]

I think there is an overlooked contributing factor to the misperception of Obamas birth. Mainstream and left leaning media and left leaning Americans reaction to the birthers.

Take Chris Matthews on Hardball:

"What is going on that so many Americans doubt the obvious that Barack Obama is a citizen to the point that you felt it necessary to co-sponsor this crazy proposal"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVndfV4--5g

How many times on this blog has it been pointed out that 'people believe what they want to believe', when a viewpoint or a value is attacked the attackee will go on the defensive and reinforce their views?

Maybe Chris Matthews should take a more softball approach. "Hey you certainly have a perspective here, I like to see skepticism in the American people but..." This would leave the skeptic feeling better about themselves even though they might be wrong.

Just sayin'