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 | Opposition to interracial dating strongly associated with Democratic vote preference, esp. when Obama is mentioned http://j.mp/9TjD2W | |
| YouGov - Old Fashioned Prejudice and Midterm Vote Preference YouGov is a research and consulting organization, pioneering the use of the Internet to collect high quality in-depth data for market research, organizational research and stakeholder consultation. | ||
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| RT @pwire By 2:1 margin, voters think taxes have risen, economy shrunk, & billions lost on bailouts. None is true. http://pwire.at/aB9r5v | |
 Voters Don't Have Accurate View of EconomyTaegan Goddard's Political Wire -- News, polls and buzz | ||
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| Jon Chait on why we should use structural factors as a baseline in assessing Democrats' midterm performance http://j.mp/bZLFxD | |
| How To Tell If Obama Blew The Election, Or If It Was Blown At All | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. | ||
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| Contrary to silly counter-intuitive hype, divided gov. not good for Obama: http://bit.ly/9f8Jri See also my March post: http://bit.ly/bKkOBV | |
| The Monkey Cage: Why Divided Government Is Bad for Obama | ||
| The coming blame Obama backlash - Brendan Nyhan As predicted, Clive Crook is blaming Obama for his political problems (rather than his staff as in the meme from a few weeks ago) without mentioning the fact that any president would struggle in... | ||
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| No. || CS Monitor: "Will the Rally to Restore Sanity actually restore sanity?" http://j.mp/bdghGE | |
| Will the Rally to Restore Sanity actually restore sanity? - CSMonitor.com We’re pretty sure that on Sunday, Democratic and Republican candidates will still be running attack ads. But it’s possible the Rally to Restore Sanity could have some effect on the national conv... | ||
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| No fundamentals alert: Game Change authors attribute Obama's difficulties to lack of intensity, "theory of the case" http://bit.ly/ak8rGk | |
 'Game Change' Authors: Can Obama Win a Second Term? - TIMETo win a second term, Barack Obama will need a new strategy. A new paperback afterword from John Heilemann and Mark Halperin, the authors of 'Game Change,' discusses the President's re-election ... | ||
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| John Judis on myths about the Tea Party -- don't agree with everything but worth reading http://bit.ly/cs89dF | |
| Four Myths About The Tea Parties | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. | ||
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| Political scientist @bshor identifies the most likely "fightin’ moderates of the freshman Republican class" http://j.mp/d3XfqE | |
| Say Hello to the Future Fightin’ Republican Liberals and Moderates of the House Class of 2010 « Boris Shor, PhD | ||
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| "Democrats are using personal attacks at much higher rates than Republicans" http://bit.ly/bbPMRX (via ABC: http://j.mp/9LqA6f ) | |
http://bit.ly/bbPMRX | ||
 Vote 2010 Elections: Democratic Closing Argument: Personal Attacks - ABC NewsIt's not just the Aqua Buddha and David Vitter's prostitute, Democratic candidates across the country are closing out the campaign with personal attacks on Republican candidates, sometimes diggi... | ||
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| As @ezraklein points out, party messaging tactics largely offset in the highly competitive world of the national parties http://j.mp/cCAHWn | |
| Ezra Klein
- Can you see the messaging effect? Over the past month or two, Democrats tried a variety of new messaging strategies to shake up the election. President Obama became, at least for a time, more partisan and confrontational in an e... | ||
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| Jason Roberts (@profjroberts) on the shift to the office bloc ballot and how it could help incumbents http://bit.ly/aRlg4c | |
| The Monkey Cage: How the Ballot May Save the Democratic Majority | ||
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| If you missed it, Factcheck.org has compiled its list of "Whoppers of Campaign 2010" http://j.mp/9Y8fOt | |
| Whoppers of Campaign 2010 | FactCheck.org Midterm elections are an embarrassment of riches for fact-checkers -- this year more than others. With Democrats fighting desperately to keep control of the House and Senate, and a torrent of mo... | ||
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| Ross Douthat explains the strategic voting logic that would sabotage most of the elaborate Bloomberg 3P scenarios http://j.mp/9mH81D | |
| Could Bloomberg Make Palin President? - NYTimes.com Why John Heilemann's wild 2012 scenario doesn't hold water. | ||
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| I didn't see the CA gov. event Matt Lauer hosted, but @JoshuaGreen is right about anti-negative ad posturing http://bit.ly/catCiK | |
 Matt Lauer, Pious Snob - Joshua Green - Politics - The AtlanticThe quasi-journalist's request that Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown stop airing negative ads was motivated by nothing other than Olympian self-regard | ||
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| More on the Fox-ification of MSNBC -- Ed Schultz busts out the Nazi analogy while hyping head-stomping video http://j.mp/bwQFsO | |
| Print view: My remark was ''thoughtless,'' the NPR chief said. But that was Murray's point | ||
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| Charlie Crist plays the strategic voting card in Florida -- probably too late to have much of an effect http://j.mp/b9kt1v | |
| Weigel : Charlie Crist: "The Polls Say I'm the Only One Who Can Stop" Palin, Tea Party, Rubio A pretty naked appeal from the fading independent candidate in Florida's U.S. Senate race. Note the naming and shaming of Sarah Palin and the Tea Party. When I was in Florida , I met a number of... | ||
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| .@mattyglesias talks sense to Democrats: "all the marketing and PR in the world won't succeed in moving public opinion" http://j.mp/ape9Hy | |
| The Wrong Political Game | The American Prospect | ||
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| RT @rcantor Great moments in polling: 51% would share their home w/ a ghost for free rent http://usat.ly/cPEvIT | |
| USA TODAY Snapshots - USATODAY.com USA TODAY Snapshots are easy-to-read statistical graphics that present information on various issues and trends in a visually appealing way. Readers are invited to answer a Quick Question relate... | ||
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| Forecasting House elections with campaign finance data http://bit.ly/a8VLrZ | |
| Forecasting House Elections with FEC Records « Ideological Cartography | ||
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 | "Maybe Obama can triangulate like Clinton!" is a silly theory. Unemployment was 5.6% in Jan 1995; macroeconomic policy mattered less. | |
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| Truth: "Every president has a communications problem." http://j.mp/aMNZXM No such thing as "forfeit[ing] control of the narrative." | |
| Robert Draper on Robert Gibbs, White House press secretary: Politics: GQ | ||
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| Crazy stupid polling story RT @smotus 75% ... provided an answer to an open-ended question? There's your lede! http://tinyurl.com/29sw3z9 | |
| 1 in 4 Americans can't think of recent positive contribution by Christians - The Denver Post One in four Americans said they couldn | ||
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| Welcome to the Unity 2008 of the next election cycle: Americans Elect 2012 http://j.mp/9WAHI1 | |
| Americans Elect 2012 | ||
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| Fanciful NY Mag piece w/elaborate scenarios in which Bloomberg run gets Palin elected http://j.mp/9duN8Q Highly unlikely 3P hype as usual | |
| How Sarah Palin Could End Up As President in 2012 -- New York Magazine Why do you think Barack Obama is being so nice to Michael Bloomberg? | ||
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| It's wrong to say Obama "forfeited control of the narrative" -- what peacetime pres. has had "control" in a bad economy? http://j.mp/b7Lhuk | |
| How Obama Lost the Narrative | Mother Jones So he's not Superman after all—but how has he managed to lose to the legion of doom? | ||
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| .@mattyglesias is right -- Fed policy has been an Iraq/Katrina-level screwup by Obama, but no one talks about it http://j.mp/bSTSdH | |
| Yglesias » Does Ben Bernanke Secretly Want Fiscal Expansion? | ||
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| Contrary to hype of Reagan's message (http://j.mp/a5QaEB), more want Obama to run for re-election now than Reagan in '82 http://j.mp/b0lAcC | |
| Judis vs. Judis on presidents and the economy - Brendan Nyhan Back in January, I predicted the birth of a thousand "Why Obama is failing" narratives: It's time to lay down a marker on punditry about the Obama White House. During the next eleven months, it ... | ||
| Obama In Better Shape Than Reagan -
Congressional Connection Poll | ||
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| In 1985, 1:125 kids had parent in prison. Now in 1:28 overall, 1:9
among black kids. Unsustainable, devastating policy. http://j.mp/9EJGuu | |
| More Democracy, More Incarceration - Reason Magazine The devastating mix of politics and crime policy | ||
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| More on dynastic politics in Congress: "The Dynasty Advantage: Family Ties in Congressional Elections" http://j.mp/c7eD1e (gated) | |
| ingentaconnect The Dynasty Advantage: Family Ties in Congressional Elections | ||
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« September 2010 | Main | November 2010 »
October 29, 2010
October 25, 2010
Twitter roundup
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| Princeton's Sam Wang flags NV, WV, CO, and IL Senate races as the best values for donors considering polls and state size http://j.mp/92UEFN | |
| 2010 Congressional races – where to donate | ||
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| Midterm is not simply a backlash against Obama's liberalism - incredibly simplistic claim by Krauthammer http://j.mp/cLA6zN | |
| Wehner Fallacy, Left And Right Versions | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. | ||
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| .@joshtpm and @mattyglesias latest to note that Clinton's messaging skills didn't translate to victory in 1994 http://j.mp/cypzCa | |
| Yglesias » That Old Clinton Magic | ||
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| Political scientists Barry Burden and Kenneth Mayer argue that early voting reduces turnout in a NYT op-ed http://j.mp/9YL2HJ | |
| The New York Times > Log In | ||
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| Unlike GOP Senate candidates (http://j.mp/9HlxI1), Weekly Standard's Caldwell says tax cuts don't increase revenue http://j.mp/bh3RGE | |
| Economist's View: One More Time with Gusto: Tax Cuts Do Not Pay for Themselves Republicans are selling snake oil once again: Some Republican Senate candidates have suggested that extending the Bush tax cuts — which are scheduled to expire at the end of the year — will actu... | ||
| The New York Times > Log In | ||
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| RT @smotus The gender gap is entirely a product of men becoming more Republican. http://tinyurl.com/23xw992 | |
| The Monkey Cage: The Gender Gap | ||
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| Why so little strategic voting in FL SEN -- Crist's switch + Meek loyalty among black Dems? Meek voters should be bailing http://j.mp/bN8PGz | |
 Poll: GOP's Marco Rubio has solid lead in Florida Senate race - Politics AP - MiamiHerald.comRepublican Marco Rubio is on the verge of delivering one of the biggest political knockouts in Florida history, as a new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll shows him barreling int... | ||
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 | At Dartmouth yesterday for panel on election forecasts. 51-52 Dems in senate and 50-60 seat GOP pickup in House was consensus. | |
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| Cool new update to HuffPo Pollster algorithm RT @mysterypollster Using Kalman Filter as the engine for our trend lines http://huff.to/9iiyr1 | |
 Upgrading Pollster's Trend Lines: The Kalman FilterRegular readers have probably noticed a few subtle changes in our trend lines over the last 24 hours (and perhaps a few temporary glitches). The good news is that we have been rolling out the fi... | ||
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| Dear CNN: A "Poll of Polls" should have >3 polls http://j.mp/bs5cVc Please talk to @mysterypollster about licensing some @pollster data. | |
| CNN Poll of Polls: Americans divided on Obama – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs Washington (CNN) -- Forty-seven percent of Americans approve of how Barack Obama is handling his job as president, while 48 percent disapprove of his job performance, according to a CNN Poll of ... | ||
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| Intrade's GOP majority odds: House 89%, Senate 16% || RT @JDelaneyIntrade 2010 US Midterm Elections: Market Update http://bit.ly/c6I0dZ | |
| Intrade Exchange News | ||
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| RT @alexlundry Great data resource for historical election year polling numbers, by @RoperCenter http://bit.ly/9NAGNW | |
| Congressional Elections Past and Present | ||
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| RT @stevekornacki If anyone should know the futility of "messaging" in a midterm environment like this, it's Clinton http://j.mp/dtE5Qc | |
| Former president Clinton on mission to rescue Democratic Party in fall elections Bill Clinton is baffled. The former president's friends say he is in disbelief that in the closing weeks of the midterm campaigns Democrats have failed to articulate a coherent message on the ec... | ||
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| RT @JonHenke Who produced this ad for Roy Barnes? They need to be publicly shamed http://bit.ly/dbttL9 | |
| When Campaign Ads Go Too Far | Philosophical Fragments Campaign ads are a sordid lot. We all know this. But how do we know when campaign ads have crossed the line from spin to outright dishonesty, from | ||
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| From @daveweigel, "a model example of high-level birtherism": http://j.mp/bYmfdJ | |
| Weigel : "Up to And Including Impeachment" I missed this over the weekend, but Susan Demas has footage of Tim Walberg, a one-term Republican congressman running for his old seat in Michigan spending a minute and a half musing over the pr... | ||
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| Correcting the NY Times: "Southern Democrats are in Trouble…But It’s Not a Realignment" http://j.mp/9a8yCz | |
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| .@daveweigel asks why Blumenthal suffering less military record fallout than Kirk. The short answer: McCain IL vote: 37%; Obama CT vote: 61% | |
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| Love this concept RT @mattyglesias Is anyone actually going to miss Juan Williams' replacement-level political commentary? | |
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October 21, 2010
How much are Tea Party candidates hurting the GOP?
With a few inexperienced Republican Senate candidates struggling, some analysts are suggesting that the Tea Party damaged the party's chances in November by helping weak candidates win primary elections. That may be true in the Senate, but the GOP has always been more likely to regain its majority in the House. Despite the influence of the Tea Party, Republicans actually have more candidates who have previously held elected office than the Democrats in competitive House races. On candidate quality, Democrats are still at a disadvantage.
Last week, the New York Times's Kate Zernike examined all the Republican candidates running nationwide and identified 129 House candidates and 9 Senate candidates who are closely affiliated with the Tea Party movement. She notes that "the Tea Party has ... handed opportunities to the Democrats by nominating candidates who have struggled" -- particularly Senate nominees Christine O'Donnell (Delaware), Sharron Angle (Nevada), and Rand Paul (Kentucky). However, in terms of candidates, the movement's impact may be overstated. As Zernike notes, "the bulk of the Tea Party candidates are running in districts that are solidly Democratic."
To make this findings more concrete, I combine Zernike's coding of 2010 House candidates with historical data on House elections compiled by UCSD's Gary Jacobson and 2008 and 2010 data generously shared by Dave Rohde, one of my mentors in graduate school at Duke.* (Comparable data for the Senate are not available.)
To assess the strength of the GOP candidates, I consider one of the key indicators from the political science literature on Congressional elections -- previously holding elected office, which Jacobson has identified as a key proxy for candidate quality. While there are exceptions to the rule, experienced politicians tend to be better vetted and less likely to make race-changing mistakes (as O'Donnell and Paul have demonstrated).
When we examine the data, it's clear that the favorable electoral environment has attracted a strong group of Republican candidates. Despite the influence of the Tea Party movement, the GOP actually has more House candidates who have previously held elected office running for open seats than the Democrats do:
Similarly, there are significantly more Republicans who have previously held electoral office challenging incumbents in potentially competitive districts than Democrats (defined as districts in which the presidential nominee of the incumbent's party received less than 60% of the two-party vote in the most recent election):
The quality of the Republican candidates running with Tea Party backing also differ substantially depending on the type of race they are in:
Given the odds that they face, it's not surprising that very few of the challengers in non-competitive districts (where the incumbent party's presidential nominee received more than 60% of the two-party vote) have previously held elected office regardless of whether they are affiliated with the Tea Party movement. The large number of amateur Tea Party candidates in this group (56 out of 58 total TP candidates) are therefore unlikely to significantly hurt the GOP.
More importantly, while it's true that Tea Party candidates are less likely to have previously held elected office in more contested races, the differences are smaller than one might think -- 48% of non-TP challengers in competitive districts (25 of 52) versus 33% of TP challengers in competitive districts (18 of 54) and 53% of non-TP open seat candidates (15 of 28) versus 43% of TP open seat candidates (6 of 14).
In short, the Tea Party movement has affiliated itself with a surprising number of non-amateur politicians in competitive and open-seat races. As a result, the GOP still has a candidate quality advantage in the House races that matter most.
Update 10/22 10:22 AM: More from Slate's Dave Weigel:
If this is surprising, a lot of that has to do with 1) a weird occasional media focus on noncompetitive races and 2) the ability of some smart politicians to brand themselves as "Tea Party" candidates. Marco Rubio, for example, could have run in a previous year as a savvy politician mentored by Jeb Bush. Instead, he introduced himself as the Tea Party in one man. Same happened with Ken Buck, a seasoned local politician who simply defined himself against a politician who'd held a higher office.
As to that first issue, I'm continually surprised that fringe candidates like Ohio's Richard Iott get so much attention; his penchant for dressing up as a Nazi is, of course, weird and stupid, but he never had a chance of winning. I'd add a bit to Nyhan's model, because the Tea Party has swung behind some first-time candidates in House races, mostly businessmen, who are going to win where token candidates used to lose.
Update 10/25 9:45 AM -- More from John Sides:
There is a tendency for some observers to assume that an ideologically driven movement -- especially if it appears to contain some "fringe elements" or whatever -- isn't going to be politically strategic. The emergence of a few high-profile oddball candidates that have the support of the movement -- your Christine O'Donnells -- only seems to further this perception of movements like the Tea Party as somehow lacking the savvy to get behind good candidates. But clearly that's not true, especially in a cycle when every other political dynamic -- a weak economy, a less-than-popular president -- gives qualified Republican candidates an incentive to come forward anyway.
The only caveat I'd add is that Nyhan is only looking at experience, not ideological extremism. For the most part, political scientists have found that the former is very important, while the latter matters more around the margins in most cases. However, it is certainly possible for those with previous electoral experience to be weak candidates (see Sharron Angle, who may well win but only after overcoming an unusual number of gaffes), and it's possible that ideological extremism could be a problem for some of those experienced candidates. Possible, but again, on that we don't have any evidence yet.
All this suggests that the Tea Party, to the extent we can define it as a unified entity, is much more pragmatic than the media usually portray it to be. Remember that Tea Party members enthusiastically backed Scott Brown for the Massachusetts Senate seat despite his very moderate credentials. That is, he stood for basically nothing that they stood for, but they recognized the importance of depriving Democrats of their filibuster-proof majority, so they sucked it up.
* Thanks also to Aaron King and Frank Orlando, my former grad student colleagues at Duke, for doing the hard work of compiling these data. Neither Rohde nor King or Orlando bears any responsibility for this analysis.
October 20, 2010
Twitter roundup
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| The Fox-ification of MSNBC continues... RT @davidfrum very disturbing story about Rachel Maddow fact abuse http://bit.ly/9P21Pt | |
| Rachel Maddow at Most Shameless: Claims GOP Congressman 'Received Advance Notice' of Oklahoma City Bombing | NewsBusters.org | ||
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| Good morning Clarence, it's Al. I would love you to consider an apology for why you did what you did with Bush v. Gore. OK, have a good day! | |
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| File under "Talk, cheap":
Palin Threatens Third Party http://j.mp/clAAW9 | |
| Palin Threatens Third Party Taegan Goddard's Political Wire -- News, polls and buzz | ||
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| New study - people whose beliefs were undermined "engaged in more advocacy of their beliefs" http://j.mp/b8cvC5 http://j.mp/bJcVcH (gated) | |
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| Interesting Barron's ad for "programmer-journalist intern" to work on "data analytic exposure of fraud" http://j.mp/9ksfQD | |
| The Society for Political Methodology - Detail | ||
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| David Brooks cites political scientists in debunking hype over campaign money -- "no evidence" of "outsize role" http://j.mp/dxYXYI | |
| The New York Times > Log In | ||
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| Mark McKinnon is hyping a planned 3rd party effort (via @davidfrum) http://bit.ly/d6hpDz Be skeptical http://j.mp/bXkbwG http://j.mp/a3lEhe | |
| Third Party: It’s Alive! | FrumForum In an exclusive interview with FrumForum, Republican strategist Mark McKinnon hinted that 2012 could see a serious third party presidential bid. | ||
| Thomas Friedman's third party nonsense - Brendan Nyhan The dream of the independent third party presidential candidate shall never die -- at least in the columns of elite pundits like Thomas Friedman. In his latest effort, Friedman predicts "a serio... | ||
| Third party hype 2005- - Brendan Nyhan The blog of Brendan Nyhan, political scientist and media critic. | ||
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| I'll do @mattyglesias one better - both Conway ad *and* misleading, xenophobic China-bashing are deserving of outrage http://j.mp/b3JV0e | |
| Yglesias » Why The Fuss About Jack Conway? | ||
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 | No RT @Slate: New @jdickerson: Can Michelle's popularity rekindle the Obama 2008 magic for the midterms? http://slate.me/aRuEkJ | |
 In Ohio, Barack and Michelle Obama try to rally the faithful. - By John Dickerson - Slate MagazineCOLUMBUS, Ohio—Two days before Election Day in 2008, Michelle Obama bragged about her husband to a crowd here of 60,000. "Barack has built one of the most powerful political organizations, recru... | ||
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| More on how Ross Douthat appears to be misunderstanding the Tea Party's relationship to independents from @davidfrum: http://j.mp/9R3Lpc | |
| The Tea Party Minority | FrumForum While the tea party appeals strongly to conservative independents, these voters still won't be enough for a national political majority. | ||
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| Backfire alert -- telling people that turnout is going to be low serves to further depress turnout
http://j.mp/alGdad (via @thisbowers) | |
 Opinion: 'Low turnout' talk may make it true - Todd Rogers and Regina Schwartz - POLITICO.comOpinion: Research shows that stories on low participation may influence readers. | ||
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| Two new studies of public opinion about comparative effectiveness/treatment guidelines http://j.mp/axWdP6 http://j.mp/9ZAm3N (both gated) | |
| A National Survey Reveals Public Skepticism About Research-Based Treatment Guidelines -- Gerber et al. 29 (10): 1882 -- Health Affairs | ||
| The Public Wants Information, Not Board Mandates, From Comparative Effectiveness Research -- Gerber et al. 29 (10): 1872 -- Health Affairs | ||
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| Agenda for UC Berkeley conference on the Tea Party this Friday http://j.mp/cg9Fp6 | |
| Tea Party Conference | Center for the Comparative Study of Right-Wing Movements | ||
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October 18, 2010
Twitter roundup
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| Andrew Ferguson's excellent takedown of Dinesh D'Souza is also a great meta-analysis of conspiracy theorizing http://j.mp/bqtgbU | |||
| The Roots of Lunacy | The Weekly Standard | ||||
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| Former CJR reporter/blogger @gregamarx has helped launch @remappingdebate, an ambitious new policy reporting site: http://j.mp/axiQVu | |||
| Home | Remapping Debate | ||||
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| Where is Douthat's evidence that Tea Party is "winning over independents"? http://j.mp/b2XYKO Many are indies who vote GOP but that's diff. | |||
| The New York Times > Log In | ||||
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| Obama's tactical shifts are symptom (not cause) of unfavorable conditions http://j.mp/92bNYa Beware the tactical fallacy! http://j.mp/aoy0sL | |||
| Flashback: Obama is becoming McCain - POLITICO.com Print View POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO's in-depth coverage includes video f... | ||||
| The tactical fallacy - Brendan Nyhan More and more pundits are jumping on the Democrats/Obama-are-in-trouble-due-to-bad-messaging bandwagon (for recent examples, see here, here, here, and here). What we're observing is a classic ex... | ||||
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| Palin hypes non-existent threat of Sharia law becoming "the law of the land" in the US http://j.mp/909ar3 | |||
| At Newsmax, Palin joins fellow conservatives with false, inflammatory attacks on Obama | Media Matters for America | ||||
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| Richard Cohen - yet another pundit who falsely attributes Obama's difficulties to messaging http://j.mp/bFE4w3 (via @jamisonfoser) | |||
| Ignoring the obvious | Media Matters for America | ||||
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| 5 myths about federal taxes from GW's Bob Stoker http://j.mp/bTiShB | |||
| The Monkey Cage: 5 Myths about Federal Taxes | ||||
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| .@ezraklein suggests Obama should hire a political scientist (via @dandrezner): http://wapo.st/9TkISV | |||
The five people Obama should hire now | ||||
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| RT @benfritz Most unfortunate typo on an election ballot ever? http://j.mp/9aXvJL | |||
 Candidate's Name Misspelled as 'Rich Whitey' on Black-District BallotsPoor Illinois Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney, the victim of an extremely cartoonish "error:" His name has been misspelled as "Rich Whitey" on voting machines in nearly two doze... | ||||
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| Useful Kaiser summaries of health care reform law -- http://j.mp/cunl8B (basic) or http://j.mp/cRpzxW (detailed PDF) | |||
| The Basics - Kaiser Health Reform | ||||
http://j.mp/cRpzxW | ||||
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October 15, 2010
Twitter roundup
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| Study finds Fox News viewing correlated with NYC mosque misperceptions (via @ageofengagement) http://bit.ly/bR3UtZ | |
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| TNR's Jonathan Chait predicts a second-term Obama impeachment by the GOP if he's re-elected http://j.mp/bQh1b3 | |
| A Republican Congress Will Find A Reason To Impeach Barack Hussein Obama. | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. | ||
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| Very useful explainer on how legal changes resulting from Citizens United have actually been "quite subtle" http://j.mp/bresLf | |
| The New York Times > Log In | ||
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| Via John Sides, the issue of PS where political scientists forecast the midterm elections is out (and free!): http://j.mp/b464pU | |
| Cambridge Journals Online - PS: Political Science & Politics Cambridge Journals Online (CJO) is the e-publishing service for over 230 journals published by Cambridge University Press and is entirely developed and hosted in-house. The platform's powerful c... | ||
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| Yet more nonsense about messaging debunked by @stevekornacki -- Obama's ability to "connect" is not the problem http://j.mp/dd1cyD | |
| Howard Fineman's Clinton cluelessness - War Room - Salon.com Let's stop acting like Barack Obama needs lessons in public speaking from the former president | ||
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| Interesting/disturbing econ article I hadn't seen before on political dynasties in Congress: http://j.mp/asFrxk (PDF) | |
http://j.mp/asFrxk | ||
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| A statistical model of White House Chief of Staff departures at Rule22 http://j.mp/9NrUyI | |
| Explaining White House Chief of Staff Departures | Rule22 | ||
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 | New virtual issue: The Social Psychology of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election, October 2010 http://j.mp/8YccPb | |
| Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy - Journal Information Analysis of Social Issues and Public Policy (ASAP): journal information, contents lists and abstracts on the Blackwell Publishing website. | ||
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October 12, 2010
Twitter roundup
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| ABC, FactCheck.org & AP all say Obama's allegs. about foreign $ are unsupported: http://j.mp/bu4z55 http://j.mp/a6lh09 http://j.mp/avkjsD | |
 Vote 2010: Is Foreign Money Behind U.S. Chamber of Commerce Ads? - ABC NewsThe accusation by President Obama and other top Democrats that foreign money is bank rolling some pro-Republican political attack ads sounds both compelling and ominous. But an examination of th... | ||
| Foreign Money? Really? | FactCheck.org Democrats, from President Barack Obama on down, are trying to turn an evidence-free allegation into a major campaign theme, claiming that foreign corporations are stealing our democracy with sec... | ||
| The Associated Press: SPIN METER: Foreign money in politics? Not proven | ||
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| Quote of the day - Chris Coons: O'Donnell's candidacy has allowed him to "accelerate awkward conversations” with his sons http://j.mp/9gTp6z | |
| The New York Times > Log In | ||
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| Pat Toomey - not a member of the reality-based community http://j.mp/aTqdBb | |
| Pat Toomey's Epistemic Closure | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. | ||
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| Unbelievable -- Gingrich says *Obama* has created fear and anxiety leading to Muslim/birther misperceptions http://j.mp/bshBKd | |
| Gingrich (!) blames Obama for people thinking he’s a foreign Muslim | Media Matters for America | ||
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| Nyhan assignment desk: Find out which Dems throwing around claims about foreign $ denounced it as a scare tactic during Clinton admin. | |
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| New, in-depth interview with me about misperceptions on the Rationally Speaking podcast (@rspodcast): http://j.mp/9WZL0n | |
| Rationally Speaking | Official Podcast of New York City Skeptics - Current Episodes - RS19 - Brendan Nyhan on False Beliefs that Refuse to Die | ||
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| As predicted (http://j.mp/aDcx4X), Halperin blames White House tactics/personalities for Obama's plight: http://j.mp/asW4v9 | |
| Barack Obama: Prisoner of circumstance - Brendan Nyhan It's time to lay down a marker on punditry about the Obama White House. During the next eleven months, it will become increasingly obvious that Democrats face an unfavorable political environmen... | ||
 Obama Is in the Jaws of Political Death: Can He Survive? - TIMEObama is being politically crushed: From above, by elite opinion about his competence. From below, by mass anger over unemployment. And it's too late for him to do anything about it until after ... | ||
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| Genius pop culture commentary from @AdamSerwer: http://j.mp/bYFNXu on Clone Wars & http://j.mp/9APuGq on criticism of Obama listening to rap | |
| Twitter Twitter is without a doubt the best way to share and discover what is happening right now. | ||
| Adam Serwer Archive | The American Prospect | ||
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| Friedman cut and pastes half of his column from a Ryan Lizza New Yorker article - pretty lazy even by columnist standards http://j.mp/adkdR8 | |
| The New York Times > Log In | ||
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| Breaking news from Hill "Twitter Room": "McCain puns on '3:10 to Yuma,'" "Clyburn surpasses 1,000 Twitter followers" http://j.mp/cOTpaA | |
 Twitter Room - The Hill's Twitter RoomThe Hill is a congressional newspaper that publishes daily when Congress is in session, with a special focus on business and lobbying, political campaigns and goings on on Capitol Hill. | ||
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| RT @kwcollins Why vote against (or for) political science? Analysis of roll call votes on Coburn amendment in new PS: http://bit.ly/a2DGHJ | |
| Cambridge Journals Online - Abstract Cambridge Journals Online (CJO) is the e-publishing service for over 230 journals published by Cambridge University Press and is entirely developed and hosted in-house. The platform's powerful c... | ||
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| Freely available recent articles from the American Journal of Political Science on Congressional elections http://j.mp/a6jmKE | |
| American Journal of Political Science - Journal Information American Journal of Political Science: journal information, contents lists and abstracts on the Wiley-Blackwell website. | ||
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October 11, 2010
October 08, 2010
Twitter roundup
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| Instead of naming and shaming D'Souza, the Post amplifies his nonsense about Obama and anticolonialism http://j.mp/9k5GMo (via @ggreenwald) | |||
Dinesh D'Souza - Why Barack Obama is an anti-colonialist | ||||
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| Listen to @jbplainblog -- no real upside to GOP Congress for Dems http://bit.ly/9lc8zZ See also http://j.mp/bJSThM & http://j.mp/cexrlj | |||
| A plain blog about politics: Sorry, Liberals: There's No Silver Lining in a GOP Congress | ||||
| The coming blame Obama backlash - Brendan Nyhan As predicted, Clive Crook is blaming Obama for his political problems (rather than his staff as in the meme from a few weeks ago) without mentioning the fact that any president would struggle in... | ||||
| Jonathan Rauch: Wrong on divided government - Brendan Nyhan The Brookings Institution's Jonathan Rauch argues in favor of divided government, which he argues will force the parties toward the center (via Brad DeLong): The most important political change ... | ||||
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| New post by @benpolitico on my paper with Jacob Montgomery about the candidate-consultant network in American politics: http://j.mp/aH4uTt | |||
 The consultants' role - Ben Smith - POLITICO.comYesterday's story on two candidates -- Sharron Angle and David Vitter -- having used the same image to represent illegal immigrants in their campaigns ads was just a particularly visible instanc... | ||||
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| Sarah Palin at 22% favorable, 48% unfavorable in new CBS poll - yikes http://j.mp/aVtKdt | |||
 Poll: Sarah Palin Favorable Rating Just 22 Percent - Political Hotsheet - CBS NewsNearly Half the Country Holds Negative View of Potential GOP Presidential Candidate, CBS News Survey Shows Read more by Brian Montopoli on CBS News' Political Hotsheet. | ||||
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| Newt: Dems are "the party of food stamps," GOP is "the party of job creation": http://j.mp/bBsZtP Reality: http://j.mp/b7SrNt | |||
 Gingrich brands Democrats 'party of food stamps' - Yahoo! NewsFormer House Speaker Newt Gingrich is advising Republican candidates on November's ballots to frame the choice for voters between Democrats as "the party of food stamps" while selling the GOP as... | ||||
 http://j.mp/b7SrNt | ||||
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| Even by Woodward-ian standards, his defense of claim that Biden-Clinton swap is "on the table" is embarrassing http://j.mp/9j5Cuv | |||
| Denial and Speculation Follow Woodward's Hint of a Clinton-Biden Swap - NYTimes.com The best-selling author's remark about the 2012 ticket sparked speculation across Washington before the White House dismissed the idea. | ||||
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| By Woodward's standard, swap of Biden for Ray LaHood is also "on the table" -- it could be a “legitimate vote-getting strategy"! | |||
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| Another example of recycling material across races -- identical mail pieces from Nevada: http://j.mp/a2UTi2 | |||
 Candidates with identical -- and I mean identical -- mail pieces - Politics: Ralston's Flash - Las Vegas SunMonday, May 17, 2010 | 3:20 p.m. - Twin pieces | ||||
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October 06, 2010
Twitter roundup
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| Rattner says his friend Michael Bloomberg realizes "nobody has ever really gotten anywhere in the third party business" http://j.mp/dias8F | |
| Michael Bloomberg and Third Party Dreams - Swampland - TIME.com Thomas Friedman's Sunday Times column about the prospects for a third-party candidate has drawn a good deal of blogospheric scoffing, but Nate Silver says not so fast--that the scenario is more ... | ||
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| MSNBC's Ed Schultz doesn't understand rounding error in survey results http://j.mp/9yCU7x | |
| Daily Howler: If we want to survive Davis Guggenheim's film, we should do eight or nine thingsPrint view: If we want to survive Davis Guggenheim's film, we should do eight or nine things Routinely, if it weren't for the mis-information, we wouldn't have any ''information'' at all! | ||
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| GOP has made a comeback w/o moving to the center -- another example of the overstated electoral importance of centrism http://j.mp/bm1PYu | |
 How conservative critics of conservatism are explaining the conservative comeback. - By David Weigel - Slate MagazineThe Great Recession has done wonders for the Republican Party. Two years after being tossed out of power at every level, it's about to waltz right back in, kicking aside the corpses of Democrats... | ||
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| Cognitive dissonance alert: Romney backers in '08 who now oppose health care reform http://j.mp/9ckhVS Chait may be right that he is doomed | |
| Romney Deathwatch, Continued | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. | ||
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| Charming: "Limbaugh’s been calling the president 'Imam Obama' for several months now." http://j.mp/9i0oG6 | |
| Limbaugh Calls President Obama a 'Jackass' - Political Punch Derision of the president on his program is nothing new, but Rush Limbaugh’s tone today may have struck the ears of regular listeners as particularly disdainful, taking his contempt of the presi... | ||
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October 05, 2010
Twitter roundup
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| Third party post updated with a response to @fivethirtyeight emphasizing theoretical reasons to doubt 3P viability: http://bit.ly/dBFRTV | |
| Thomas Friedman's third party nonsense - Brendan Nyhan The dream of the independent third party presidential candidate shall never die -- at least in the columns of elite pundits like Thomas Friedman. In his latest effort, Friedman predicts "a serio... | ||
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| Inspired by Thomas Friedman, a compilation of third party hype since 2005 -- it's a long history of wrong: http://j.mp/a3lEhe | |
| Third party hype 2005- - Brendan Nyhan The blog of Brendan Nyhan, political scientist and media critic. | ||
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| Wow - new paper finds that 39% households were unemployed or underwater/in arrears on their house between 11/08 & 4/10 http://j.mp/a3lV79 | |
| Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households | ||
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| More Mondale nonsense about Obama not "connecting" because of teleprompters: http://j.mp/97s7mG Why he's wrong: http://j.mp/aFipuR | |
| Mondale to Obama: Ditch the 'idiot boards' - Ben Smith - POLITICO.com Former Vice President Walter Mondale suggested in an interview today President Obama stop relying on "idiot boards" -- teleprompters, that is -- to deliver his message to the American people. "... | ||
| The zombie myth of presidents "not connecting" - Brendan Nyhan Former Vice President Walter Mondale is the latest public figure to fall victim to the impossible-to-kill myth that the predictable decline in President Obama's political standing is the result ... | ||
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| Memeorandum collects this morning's crop of Tom Friedman is wrong about third parties blog posts: http://j.mp/avSFhs | |
 memeorandum: Tom Friedman Hates Democracy. (Jamelle Bouie/American Prospect)The latest political news and opinion from left to right and back. Blogs and mainstream news outlets features on a single page. | ||
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| Another great piece from @SteveKornacki -- beware the narrative of a Democratic surge, which was also touted in '94 http://j.mp/bzKSgc | |
| A Democratic surge -- or a mirage? - War Room - Salon.com Why you should take new reports of Democratic momentum for the midterm elections with a grain of salt | ||
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| Summary of book on partisan ambivalence with cool graph -- Dems high in ambivalence in '52 & '68, GOP in '96, '00, '04 http://j.mp/9vocR4 | |
| The Monkey Cage: Ambivalent Partisans | ||
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| One other relevant finding: Ambivalent partisans "hold more accurate perceptions of the political world" http://j.mp/9vocR4 | |
| The Monkey Cage: Ambivalent Partisans | ||
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| LAT op-ed reminds us that presidents almost always lose seats Cong. and that loss will not be end of Obama's presidency http://j.mp/9gglwb | |
| Politics, Congress: For presidents, losing midterm vote is the norm - latimes.com | ||
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| Really, WSJ -- "Healthamburglar"? http://j.mp/9LDSoy I like a good Hamburglar reference as much as the next guy, but that's a hacky mess | |
| Review & Outlook: Healthamburglar - WSJ.com The Wall Street Journal on what happened when McDonald's met ObamaCare. | ||
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| "Static America: Myths about Political Change in the US" from Pew's Michael Robinson: http://j.mp/9xEfXE (via @doug_rivers) | |
| A Static America: A Contrarian View of Current U.S. Public Opinion Trends - Pew Research Center With predictions of a wave of Republican victories come the November elections, there has been talk of a sea change in American politics. While acknowledging that changes in political and econom... | ||
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| Chait claims "[n]ot much correlation" between cons. self-ID and GOP vote, but I get r of approx. 0.5 -- pretty strong http://j.mp/9Oo9yL | |
| Who Cares How Many People Call Themselves Conservative? | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. | ||
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| MSNBC bringing on Levi Johnston to mock him and Palin = Fox bringing on obscure black nationalists to discredit liberals http://j.mp/aT6PEO | |
| Print view: Rehema Ellis lied through her teeth about our glorious history | ||
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| People you should not trust -- anyone who takes Gallup's Obama v. Hillary poll seriously http://j.mp/a1xR1N | |
| Weigel : Gallup's Obama-Hillary 2012 Primary Poll; Or, How to Invent News The new Gallup poll on a potential 2012 Democratic presidential primary comes with a warning: As is the case for the 2012 Republican nomination , voter sentiments at this stage of the 2012 elect... | ||
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| Important legislation introduced to allow bulk access to THOMAS data on Congress http://j.mp/98bcC1 This is public data -- set it free! | |
| Rep. Foster Introduces Bill To Improve THOMAS — Sunlight Foundation Blog Yesterday, Rep. Bill Foster introduced a bill that would improve public access to legislative information. Specifically, H.R. 6289 calls for: | ||
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October 04, 2010
October 01, 2010
About Me
I am Professor of Public Policy in the Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. I received my Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at Duke University and served as a RWJ Scholar in Health Policy Research and a faculty member in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College before coming to the Ford School. I also tweet at @BrendanNyhan, contribute to The Upshot at The New York Times, and am a co-organizer of Bright Line Watch. Previously, I served as a media critic for Columbia Journalism Review, co-edited Spinsanity, a non-partisan watchdog of political spin, and co-authored All the President's Spin. For more, see my Michigan website.
Content feeds:
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Email:
bnyhan@yahoo.com
Recent Posts
- New GEN column: 2020 polls are useless right now
- New GEN column: AOC is right - give Congress a raise
- New Medium: Trump as the arsonist firefighter
- New Medium: Don't normalize election challenges
- New Bright Line Watch report on US democracy
- New Medium: Beware redaction conspiracies
- New Medium: Why primaries need parties
- New Medium: Evidence-based policy for social media
- New Upshot: Why vaccination laws matter most
- New Medium: A weak president can still be dangerous