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 | Bloomberg claims "a 3rd party candidate could run the government easier " http://j.mp/dpaJf4 (via @pwire) Ask J. Ventura how that worked out | |
 NYC mayor says independent president a good ideaNY mayor, a former Democrat and Republican, endorses idea of an independent in the White House | ||
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| Bayh joins the implausible divided government helps Obama crowd http://j.mp/aBRAti See http://j.mp/cQOAMw for why this is wrong | |
 Sen. Bayh: GOP wins could improve chances of Obama reelection - The Hill's Blog Briefing RoomLarge gains by Republicans on Election Day Tuesday could actually improve President Obama's chances of reelection in 2012, a centrist senator said Monday. Retiring Sen. | ||
| A preview of post-election storytelling - Brendan Nyhan I'm bracing for an avalanche of nonsense tomorrow night about why Barack Obama is responsible for the expected Republican landslide. Here's a guide to what you should expect. It's long been obvi... | ||
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| Beware 1982 comparisons like this http://j.mp/9sWiOk Reagan lost 14% of House caucus, was no more popular than Obama. See http://j.mp/cpfMKv | |
| Fred Barnes: Democrats Can't Blame the Economy - WSJ.com In The Wall Street Journal, Fred Barnes writes that if President Obama had moved right after Scott Brown's election, his party would be in better shape today. | ||
| Brendan Nyhan: Judis vs. Judis on presidents and the economy Back in January, I predicted the birth of a thousand "Why Obama is failing" narratives: It's time to lay down a marker on punditry about the Obama White House. | ||
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| Given campaign $ law, shouldn't we roll back soft $ limits so that more $ goes thru parties rather than outside groups? http://j.mp/aKqe18 | |
| Review & Outlook: Campaign-Finance Reform, RIP - WSJ.com The Wall Street Journal argues that this year's gusher of spending has made far more races competitive. | ||
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| It's true that recent presidents who lost re-election faced a primary challenger, but may just be reflection of weakness. http://j.mp/96dA7N | |
| John Fund: Obama's Next Worry Is A Restive Left Flank - WSJ.com In The Wall Street Journal, John Fund notes that a primary challenge from the left in 2012 would threaten President Obama. Every president who lost re-election in the last half-century has first... | ||
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| Who could possibly cast an informed vote for all these offices? I'm starting Political Scientists for Fewer Choices... | |
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| RT @ProfJRoberts my all-time favorite is candidates for coroner in my home county campaigning by insisting that they are "pro-life" | |
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| RT @bshor One reason why polarization in the 112th Cong will be so high: Republican open seats going to big conservatives http://j.mp/93clZK | |
| 112th Polarization Watch, Part 2. Winning Senate Republicans in Open Seats are More Conservative than Departing Incumbents « Boris Shor, PhD | ||
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| I've been critical of Bai, but this is right on the money RT @MattBai Winners Tuesday May Benefit From Economic Cycle http://nyti.ms/97E8Fe | |
| The New York Times > Log In | ||
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| RT @alexrolfe Yet he [Bai] refuses to write "Winners Tuesday Won Because of Economic Cycle" | |
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| Princeton's Sam Wang: Senate 51D-49R, House 228R-207D; @fivethirtyeight: S 51.7D, 232.3 R, Stochastic Dem 52.4 D, 232.6 R http://j.mp/atWAuI | |
| Monday final: Senate 51D-49R, House 230R-205D | ||
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| In other words, Wang's simple meta-analysis produces virtually identical predictions to overly complicated models http://j.mp/atWAuI | |
| Monday final: Senate 51D-49R, House 230R-205D | ||
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| Amazing. RT @Benjy_Sarlin: Every single pundit picked 20-25 seats as GOP's 1994 gain: http://shar.es/09Vbf (via @daveweigel) | |
| A Midterm Flashback - Beltway Beast - The Daily Beast As you may have noticed, we at The Daily Beast have been busily digging into coverage of blowouts past for historical parallels to tomorrow's election. ... | ||
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| RT @davidlazer: An issue meter, based on text from campaign websites: http://www.iq.harvard.edu/blog/netgov/ | |
| Complexity and Social Networks Blog | ||
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| .@AdamSerwer on how David Broder's "blind ideological commitment" to centrism leads to "moral cretinism" http://j.mp/beKdDP | |
| Adam Serwer Archive | The American Prospect | ||
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| Lessons for academics (and others) -- the too many projects problem http://bit.ly/8YfeA1 | |
| Don't Spread Yourself Too Thin: The Impact of Task Juggling on Workers' Speed of Job Completion | ||
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November 02, 2010
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About Me
I am Professor of Public Policy in the Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. I received my Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at Duke University and served as a RWJ Scholar in Health Policy Research and a faculty member in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College before coming to the Ford School. I also tweet at @BrendanNyhan, contribute to The Upshot at The New York Times, and am a co-organizer of Bright Line Watch. Previously, I served as a media critic for Columbia Journalism Review, co-edited Spinsanity, a non-partisan watchdog of political spin, and co-authored All the President's Spin. For more, see my Michigan website.
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I agree with Matt Bai that economic luck plays a big part of a politician's success, especially at the state level. However, his column illustrates a common cognitive dissonance. On the one hand, the stimulus bill did a great deal of good to the economy and was worth its trillion-dollar cost. On the other hand, there's nothing anyone can do about the economy. It wanes and waxes in cycles that we cannot control.
IMHO uncertainty about what the government will do has been a major factor in the continuing recession. If the election results in divided, stalemated government, that will reduce the uncertainty and encourage economic recovery. In that case, I suppose the public will give credit to the President and re-elect him.
Posted by: David in Cal | November 02, 2010 at 11:25 AM