Twitter roundup

	Brendan Nyhan Nov 24, 2010 at 2:34pm From my Twitter feed (11/22-11/24)
	BrendanNyhan Nov 24, 2010 at 2:28pm Jay Cost claims Truman was *helped* by weak economy in '48: http://j.mp/ekpaOJ My response is appended here: http://j.mp/asTJTj
	What Role Will the Economy Play in the 2012 Election? | The Weekly Standard
	The misleading story of Harry Truman's comeback - Brendan Nyhan It's boring to point out that divided government is bad for President Obama, so journalists and commentators have been trying to make silly up-is-down arguments about why GOP control of Congress...
	BrendanNyhan Nov 24, 2010 at 12:50pm Frank links GOP position on Fed w/China http://j.mp/hiBcxU Another Dem embracing tactic of comparing GOP w/hated figures http://j.mp/eXSLFr
	Barney Frank Attacks Republicans For Siding With Chinese Currency Manipulators Against Unemployed Americans | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more.
	DNC compares GOP to terrorists - Brendan Nyhan In a rejoinder to criticism of Obama's Nobel Prize by RNC chair Michael Steele, DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse smeared the GOP as having "thrown in its lot with the terrorists - the ...
	BrendanNyhan Nov 24, 2010 at 12:46pm Futures traders don't believe in Bloomberg/third party hype -- contract is trading at 3% on Intrade http://j.mp/gqoCaY
	PRESIDENT.OTHER.2012 14:34
	BrendanNyhan Nov 23, 2010 at 4:00pm Pundits of the world, stop talking about your junk. Please. RT @jackshafer "Go ahead, touch my junk." --Michael Kinsley http://j.mp/fWG5pH
	Opinion: Go ahead, touch my junk - Michael Kinsley - POLITICO.com Opinion: The TSA deserves a kind word as it continues to be slammed by critics.
	BrendanNyhan Nov 23, 2010 at 3:56pm By popular demand, here's the corrected link to the 11 (!) Gail Collins columns mentioning Bristol Palin since 10/08: http://j.mp/giTAH3
	The New York Times: Search for 'bristol' > Byline 'gail collins'
	BrendanNyhan Nov 23, 2010 at 2:10pm Hilarious Dick Morris hyperbole: "[O'Reilly's] critique of Obama is one of the sharpest & most well argued ever written" http://j.mp/gGIB33
	Dick Morris suggests Barack Obama may be an "Anti-American" socialist Muslim | Media Matters for America
	BrendanNyhan Nov 23, 2010 at 2:55am RT @daringfireball Isarithmic History of the Two-Party Vote in U.S. Presidential Elections: http://df4.us/gn4 // (from Duke's David Sparks)
	Daring Fireball Linked List: Isarithmic History of the Two-Party Vote in U.S. Presidential Elections
	BrendanNyhan Nov 22, 2010 at 9:53pm Journalists: Read John Sides on the independent vote and how Obama and the Democrats can win it back. Then read it again. http://j.mp/gNL1UV
	The Monkey Cage: Do Democrats Understand Political Independents?

Comments

[David in Cal]

In addition to comparing Republicans to hated figures, Franks uses a common trick when he accuses Reps of not caring about unemployment. I think his syllogism goes like this:

1. The Fed's purchase of massive amounts of US debt will improve the economy thus reducing unemployment.

2. Reps oppose the Fed's action.

3. Therefore Reps don't care about unemployment.

Of course, the reality is that Reps disagree with #1. We think that the Fed's action will make the economy worse, not better.

If Franks were to acknowledge the Reps' actual position, that would lead to an honest debate. He has no need to go that route, because many liberals fall for this trick and sincerely believe that conservatives don't care. In part, that's because action tends to demonstrate caring, even when that action may be counter-productive.

[David in Cal]

I will respond here to Brendan's addendum to the prior post regarding Jay Cost's post. I agree with Brendan that there's a real relationship between GDP growth rate in the 2nd quarter of the election year and the incumbant's party % of Presidential vote. The question is how good a predictor that relationship provides. I'd say not good at all. In addition to the Palin problem that Brendan points out, here are some other sources of uncertainty:

1. When the fitted line is used to prediot a single point, the uncertainty for that point prediction is different from and larger than the uncertainty of the line (which is measured by r^2.) This is a technical way of repeating Rob's point, that while the input of 2.5% matches the close election of 2000, slightly different inputs would match elections that were landslides both ways.

2. Using a predicted 2012 GDP Growth Rate rather than an actual figure adds more uncertainty.

3. The model ought to look at (Incumbant Share of Vote - Other Major Share of Vote). Looking at Incumbant Party Share of Vote means that 3rd parties mess it up. E.g. Bill Clinton's 47% of vote in 1992 was a victory.

4. The relationship between GDP Growth and Incumbant Share of Vote is likely to be changing gradually over time in some unknown way. That's why Brendan's graph doesn't go all the way back as far as data is available.

[bnyhan]

Yes, there is a lot of uncertainty around that prediction. I'm certainly not claiming that Q2 GDP growth is the best or most appropriate predictor of vote totals. (I tend to prefer the Bread and Peace model of Douglas Hibbs.) The Q2 GDP plot was just an especially simple and convenient way to illustrate that economic forecasts suggest Obama will face a very competitive re-election campaign. I'm not claiming to be making a precise vote forecast of my own.

PS David, the graph uses the percentage of the two-party vote received by the *incumbent party* as the dependent variable, which excludes third parties. Look, for instance, at 1992, which isn't Clinton. It's actually showing that George H.W. Bush received approximately 47% of the two-party vote in that election.

[David in Cal]

It's perhaps noteworthy that Jonathan Chait, who Brendan sometimes quotes, doesn't share Brendan's aversion to comparing Republicans to hated figures. On the contrary, Chait praises the attack as "the most obviously ripe political line of attack you can imagine."