Twitter roundup

	Brendan Nyhan Nov 1, 2010 at 12:18pm From my Twitter feed (10/29-11/1)
	BrendanNyhan Nov 1, 2010 at 12:08pm Obama's "enemies" comment was unseemly, but is Boehner right that Reagan, WJC, and GWB didn't ever use it the same way? http://j.mp/9idP89
	24 HOURS OUT: 'METEOR STRIKE'? -- Boehner hits Obama for ‘enemies’ -- GOP sees Palin running -- Tells Greta she may send flowers to VandeAllen but calls us 'jokes' -- Remembering Ted Sorensen - POLITICO.com Print View POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO's in-depth coverage includes video f...
	BrendanNyhan Nov 1, 2010 at 2:11am Elements in the GOP eager to stop Palin -- difficult coordination problem http://j.mp/baX2N5 Odds of nom. on Intrade 20% http://j.mp/cVJAb0
	Next for GOP leaders: Stopping Palin - POLITICO.com Print View POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO's in-depth coverage includes video f...
	2012.REP.NOM.PALIN 12:18
	BrendanNyhan Oct 31, 2010 at 5:41pm WSJ: "the public is telling Congress to repeal and replace" HCR http://j.mp/cmc7ua In reality, only ~30% want repeal ASAP http://j.mp/9nxD80
	Review & Outlook: ObamaCare and Voters - WSJ.com The Wall Street Journal writes that Clinton and Obama told Democrats it would be popular. Whoops.
	Health Policy
	BrendanNyhan Oct 31, 2010 at 5:30pm ABC News polls Palin -- 54% unfavorable; 67% unqualified (including 46% of Republicans) http://j.mp/aXQtro
	Tea Party or No, Palin's Popularity Still Lags - The Numbers The Numbers Blog
	BrendanNyhan Oct 31, 2010 at 5:13pm Visualizations of word frequencies from Democratic and Republican candidate websites in October http://j.mp/bbeoT1
	BrendanNyhan Oct 30, 2010 at 6:06pm Princeton's Sam Wang: "Final simple poll-based prediction: House 230R-205D (+/-1.5), Senate 52D-48R (+/-1)" http://j.mp/bgPVKO
	Simple poll-based snapshot: House 230R-205D (+/-1.5), Senate 52D-48R (+/-1)
	BrendanNyhan Oct 30, 2010 at 5:50pm NYT: "In Senate Races, New Republican Blood Is Mostly Old" http://j.mp/9TOSmW Similar story among House candidates: http://j.mp/9lJQlt
	The New York Times > Log In
	How much are Tea Party candidates hurting the GOP? - Brendan Nyhan With a few inexperienced Republican Senate candidates struggling, some analysts are suggesting that the Tea Party damaged the party's chances in November by helping weak candidates win primary e...
	BrendanNyhan Oct 30, 2010 at 1:11pm RT @dankennedy_nu Can we dispel myth that Kerry ran "lackluster" campaign? http://bit.ly/akSA1t || He beat PS forecasts http://j.mp/a9yICe
	Kerry shines in his role as campaign surrogate - The Boston Globe
	Campaign events vs. the fundamentals - Brendan Nyhan We're at a historic moment -- Barack Obama's estimated lead in the national polls is over seven percentage points: There are two ways to interpret what's happened. Most journalists will soon con...
	BrendanNyhan Oct 29, 2010 at 11:48pm NYTM: "How Behavioral Science is Remaking Politics" http://j.mp/d3fke4 (via @benpolitico). See also this '08 post: http://j.mp/bshvn
	The New York Times > Log In
	TwitRSS on L'Equipe.fr Actu Football
	BrendanNyhan Oct 29, 2010 at 9:46pm Political scientist @prowag on "Breathless myths and stodgy realities of the 2010 Election" http://j.mp/b5zUJf

Comments

[Rob]

Ah, the Kerry campaign--what a delightful trip down memory lane. Was Kerry a lackluster campaigner? As Rod Serling would say, submitted for your approval:

In Pike County, Ohio, Kerry dropped in on the Buchanan Village Gun Shop to inquire, in freshly acquired twang, "Can I get me a hunting license here?"

Perhaps--perhaps!--Kerry's being a lackluster campaigner didn't lose him any votes, but that doesn't change the fact that he was a lackluster campaigner. The political scientists who say differently are channeling Richard Pryor: "Baby, who you gonna believe? Me or your lyin’ eyes?"

[bnyhan]

Sure, but shouldn't the definition of a lackluster campaigner be losing votes? Now, it's possible the models were wrong and Kerry underperformed, but that requires a more elaborate argument about the appropriate counterfactual.

[Rob]

As you say, it's possible the models were wrong. It's also possible, however, that factors exogenous to the models (e.g., dislike of Bush, hatred of Cheney, disgruntlement over Bush v. Gore, or even disagreement over--suspend your disbelief for a moment here--policy) would have elevated Kerry above the models' predictions, but his lackluster campaign caused him to fritter away these advantages.

[Rob]

I fear my last comment didn't really address your question whether the definition of a good or bad campaign is one that wins or loses votes. Let me try again. It's possible that a poor campaign wouldn't result in any loss of votes if the voters are determined to vote for or against the candidate without regard to the campaign. (Imagine Obama's vote among African-Americans, for example.) Does that mean it's not possible to reach a judgment whether the candidate ran a good campaign or not?

How about a surgeon who botches an operation? If his patient would have died anyway (e.g., he had a hemorrhage unrelated to the botched procedure), does that mean the surgeon didn't botch the operation?