Twitter roundup

	Brendan Nyhan Dec 9, 2010 at 4:32pm From my Twitter feed (12/6-12/9)
	BrendanNyhan Dec 9, 2010 at 2:22pm The ethical and political challenges of randomized trials http://j.mp/eADVU9 Unfortunately, they're still the best option for policy evals
	BrendanNyhan Dec 9, 2010 at 1:27pm Yet another story suggesting Obama needs to win the center to get re-elected and doesn't mention the role of the economy http://j.mp/idLYVt
	BrendanNyhan Dec 8, 2010 at 9:04pm How many ways can Tony Blankley be wrong? http://j.mp/hqjlf7 He was Newt's flack and doesn't even know Contract with America had 10 items.
	Tony Blankley re-writes history | Media Matters for America
	BrendanNyhan Dec 8, 2010 at 3:10pm RT @mleewelch Tom Friedman's 2nd paragraph is a transparent attempt to win Insane Metaphor of the Year Award: http://is.gd/iotBE
	BrendanNyhan Dec 8, 2010 at 1:32pm Bai says Obama could lose if primaried http://j.mp/hlYLB3 But challenges are an indicator of weakness, not its cause http://j.mp/eob9ic
	BrendanNyhan Dec 8, 2010 at 1:23pm Lane Kenworthy: "If our economy gets back on its feet... images of Obama as Carter redux will be a distant memory." http://j.mp/dSpzGc
	The tax deal « Consider the Evidence
	BrendanNyhan Dec 7, 2010 at 10:17pm .@jamisonfoser catches LAT blogger Andrew Malcolm claiming Clinton won because he moved to center w/o mentioning economy http://j.mp/hmD9lz
	Andrew Malcolm is wrong about Bill Clinton's re-election | Media Matters for America
	BrendanNyhan Dec 7, 2010 at 3:31pm More Noonan mysticism: data-free assertion that Americans think spending is "the great issue" http://j.mp/ezQKUO See also http://j.mp/fy0knp
	Peggy Noonan isn't even trying any more | Media Matters for America
	The mysticism of Peggy Noonan - Brendan Nyhan Jonathan Chait had a great post a couple of weeks ago that's worth revisiting because of what it tells us about how pundits reason about politics. As Chait noted, political scientists have estab...
	BrendanNyhan Dec 7, 2010 at 1:11pm David Brooks mails in his column, but I agree with this: "A day without social science is like a day without sunshine" http://bit.ly/gDxr7I
	NYT: Social Science Palooza Humans are strange, complicated creatures. Just look at some of the recent reports on behavioral research.
	BrendanNyhan Dec 7, 2010 at 2:15am WSJ: "estate of $5 mill. isn't all that much for successful & thrifty business person w/some real estate" http://j.mp/fg7WbA Reality: Tiny %
	Review & Outlook: The Walking Death Tax - WSJ.com A Wall Street Journal editorial urges Congress to fix the estate tax, which returns with the vengeance of a 55% rate in 26 days.
	BrendanNyhan Dec 6, 2010 at 9:12pm Cancun Insider blog by @NationalJournal is going to surprise some people planning their spring break online http://j.mp/hqbbgn
	Cancun Insider

Comments

[David in Cal]

Media Matters cherry-picks their data to try to make a point.

They accuse Peggy Noonan of having no evidence that the American people made it clear that the great issue is spending. The evidence is so obvious, Noonan doesn't even have to mention it. We just had an election in which the Tea Parties, who stand for controlling government spending, were the most dynamic force. MM mentions some polls, but ignores the actual election results.

MM's comparison of the Bush deficits to the Obama deficits also shows them resolutely ignoring what's right in front of their eyes. They write: "Remember, these tax cuts have been in place for eight years. But if Noonan thinks extending them will suddenly make federal spending cuts inevitable, then why weren't cuts made over the last eight years?" (Italics MM's)

The Bush annual deficits averaged under $150 billion. Nobody liked these deficits, but they were manageable. The Obama annual deficits are projected to average more like $1.5 trillion -- ten times as high! Virtually everyone agrees that this level is not manageable. If continued, the current level of deficits will harm the US dollar.

[Rob]

I can't help but be amused by the public posturing. For ten years all we heard from the Democrats was that the Bush tax cuts were tax cuts for the rich. Now that the Bush tax cuts are becoming the Obama tax cuts, they're tax relief for the middle class. Sure, Obama would prefer to skip tax relief for the fat cats--you know, those married persons who each earn a king's ransom of something over $125,000 and light their cigars with hundred dollar bills. But since the benefits of the Bush Obama tax cuts fall 82% on the poor and middle class and only 18% on the "rich," he's willing to endure the unendurable. Laughter aplenty.

[David in Cal]

Nice link to the article on the use of randomized controlled trials to evaluate social welfare programs. Like medical studies, this one has IRB approval and participants must give informed consent.

In addition to the political and ethical challenges, there may be practical challenges in interpreting the results. There's no way to run this study double-blind or single-blind. Families will know whether or not they get the aid. As a result, the Hawthorne Effect could muddle the results. Nevertheless, I applaud this effort to try to analyze just how well the program is working.

George W. Bush may deserve some credit. During the No Child Left Behind debate, Bush preached the need to evaluate program effectiveness. This may something he learned at Harvard Business School. As far as I can recall, he was the first President to make such a fuss about methodical program evaluation.

[MartyB]

Brendan - I am not sure I understand your point in this post above, so if I mis-interpret please correct me:

WSJ: "estate of $5 mill. isn't all that much for successful & thrifty business person w/some real estate" http://j.mp/fg7WbA Reality: Tiny %

Just because there might be a small percentage affected (which by the way I'd like to see some back up for your assertion), doesn't mean it's not important.

The issue s/b is it fair and/or the right thing to do. If you believe it isn't fair or equitable, then even it is only impacts a few people (even if they are the hated "rich") it's not right.